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Prediction markets for Global Series

Will Elon Musk be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 2, 5:03 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

63.89%chance

454669

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

189

Will Justin Sun (founder of Tron) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 6, 3:09 AMDec 31, 5:00 PM

86.88%chance

153816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2321

572

Will September 2025 be the hottest September ever? [NCEI]

Jun 12, 3:38 PMOct 10, 11:59 PM

9.94%chance

52435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3010

332

Will August 2025 be the hottest August ever? [NCEI]

Jun 12, 3:37 PMSep 11, 3:00 PM

14.58%chance

51900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2420

413

Will Marc Andreessen be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 5:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.05%chance

221363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

940

Will Johnny Lyu (CEO of KuCoin) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 3, 12:58 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

31.05%chance

121237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

973

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Mar 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

74.93%chance

401206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

810

Relativity Space Fails by December 31, 2025

Nov 25, 1:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.83%chance

41110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2015

500

Will Peter Thiel be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 5:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.18%chance

22992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1482

927

Global catastrophe series: By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Jul 21, 12:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.27%chance

17561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

682

Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.24%chance

13393

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

871

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4047

3968

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