Global Top 10 News

Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:46 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26.95%chance

6326009

OptionVotes

YES

1353

823

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.61%chance

235041

OptionVotes

YES

5459

2563

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

133709

OptionVotes

YES

6632

3220

"The Altruists" (Netflix show about FTX) prop bets

Oct 9, 12:40 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

402153

OptionProbability

SBF is shown in a bean bag chair

A Manifolder is depicted

The words "bednets" or "malaria" are spoken

FTX's investment in Anthropic is referenced

SBF's Toyota Corolla is shown

William MacCaskill appears

SBF is shown playing League of Legends

Rotten Tomatoes critics score >60% (1w after release)

The word "polycule" is spoken

Tom Brady is depicted

SBF's alleged plan to pay Trump to not run for president is referenced

Caroline's Tumblr posts are quoted from or shown on screen

The word "LessWrong" is spoken OR the LessWrong website is shown

Eliezer Yudkowsky is shown OR directly referenced

The words "Kelly Criterion" are spoken

SBF’s Tyler Cowen interview directly referenced

Reaches #1 on Netflix's Global Top 10 Shows (within 2w)

Manifold is mentioned or shown in any capacity

Where will October 2026 rank among the warmest Octobers on record (Copernicus ERA5)?

Oct 9, 7:09 PMNov 12, 11:59 PM

6801

OptionProbability

Warmest October on record (1st)

2nd warmest

3rd warmest

4th warmest or lower

Will the UAE be in the top 10 countries in Human Development Index (HDI) in 2031?

Jul 7, 10:22 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.75%chance

5560

OptionVotes

YES

1025

975

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

YES

1091

949

More Avatar movies vs more Avengers movies in Top 10 WW A-T before end of 2030?

Dec 17, 8:20 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

7290

OptionProbability

More Avengers movies in Top 10 WW A-T

More Avatar movies in Top 10 WW A-T

Other

Will a Top 100 Global Bank collapse or require emergency bailout before 2027?

Feb 25, 4:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.26%chance

8204

OptionVotes

YES

106

[Metaculus] Will any top 10 global meat processor/producer go bankrupt before 2028?

Oct 12, 10:35 PMJan 2, 11:58 PM

21.27%chance

682

OptionVotes

YES

223

117

Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before 2030?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.53%chance

246

OptionVotes

YES

136

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

Global Top 10 News

Prediction markets for Global Top 10

Prediction markets for Global Top 10

Prediction markets for Global Top 10

Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before 2030?

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

"The Altruists" (Netflix show about FTX) prop bets

Where will October 2026 rank among the warmest Octobers on record (Copernicus ERA5)?

Will the UAE be in the top 10 countries in Human Development Index (HDI) in 2031?

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

More Avatar movies vs more Avengers movies in Top 10 WW A-T before end of 2030?

Will a Top 100 Global Bank collapse or require emergency bailout before 2027?

[Metaculus] Will any top 10 global meat processor/producer go bankrupt before 2028?

Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before 2030?

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

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