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Prediction markets for Global Top 10

Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:46 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.19%chance

4820786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1124

921

How many consecutive weeks will "KPop Demon Hunters" stay in the Netflix Top 10?

Sep 4, 10:22 PMDec 6, 11:18 PM

3820209

OptionProbability

Other

32

31

30

29

26

28

20-21

22-23

24-25

27

<13

14-15

16-17

18-19

68

9

6

5

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.26%chance

224741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5159

2655

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Liang Wenfeng in Forbes' Top 10 Billionaires List by December 31, 2035

Jan 26, 6:03 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

20.57%chance

6393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

51

Will there be another political Assassination or a famous figure that everyone knows in 2025?

Sep 28, 5:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.72%chance

9362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

33

Will the UAE be in the top 10 countries in Human Development Index (HDI) in 2031?

Jul 7, 10:22 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

59.49%chance

4360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

[Metaculus] Will any top 10 global meat processor/producer go bankrupt before 2028?

Oct 12, 10:35 PMJan 2, 11:58 PM

21.27%chance

682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

117

Best New Artist at the 2026 Grammy Awards?

Nov 17, 11:03 AMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

225

OptionProbability

Olivia Dean

Addison Rae

Katseye

The Marias

Sombr

Leon Thomas

Alex Warren

Lola Young

36

12

9

9

9

9

9

9

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

33

17

17

17

17

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