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Prediction markets for Golden Gate

Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2030? [ADD ANSWERS]

Apr 10, 10:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

414185

OptionProbability

Kerch Bridge (Crimea)

The Kremlin (Moscow, Russia)

Yamal-Europe Pipeline

Belo Monte Dam (Brazil)

Panama Canal (Panama)

Guri Dam (Venezuela)

Itaipu Dam (Brazil and Paraguay)

Suez Canal (Egypt)

Vatican City

Xiluodu Dam (China)

Baihetan Dam (China)

Three Gorges Dam (China)

The Great Sphinx of Giza (Egypt)

Golden Gate Bridge (United States)

Statue of Liberty (US)

The Empire State Building (US)

The Louvre (Paris, France)

Channel Tunnel (UK and France)

Hoover Dam (US)

Port of Houston (US)

The Holland Tunnel (The tunnel under the Hudson River) (NYC to NJ, US)

World Trade Center (New York, US)

Eiffel Tower (Paris, France)

97

47

35

26

25

25

24

21

21

19

17

17

16

12

12

12

12

11

10

10

10

10

10

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

474052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8923

4537

Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities?

Jun 22, 5:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18%chance

312510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

47

Will any car drive itself from the Empire State Building to the Golden Gate Bridge before April 2028?

Mar 14, 10:02 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

31.32%chance

351387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1371

650

Will Waymo give public driverless rides across the Golden Gate Bridge by the end of 2026?

Mar 17, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.76%chance

151069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1312

834

Will Golden Gate Park charge for street parking by 2026-06-30?

Feb 24, 12:01 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

5589

OptionProbability

No metered parking happens before 2026-06-30

2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31

2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30

2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31

Before 2025-09-30

91

3

3

2

1

Why is Claude 3.5 Sonnet such a good model for its size?

Jul 11, 8:22 AMJul 19, 6:59 AM

8547

OptionProbability

Pretraining data composition

Doesn't use any scale.ai training data

Offline policy learning RLHf

Task vectors like golden gate Claude

88

63

49

37

When will Waymo cross any Bay bridge?

Feb 25, 4:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4444

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2030

Before Jul 2030

Before Jul 2029

Before Jan 2029

Before Jan 2028

Before Jul 2028

Before Jul 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Jul 2026

95

95

90

85

80

80

69

37

14

Will any of the 26 arrested SF GGB Palestine protestors be convicted of false imprisonment

Apr 18, 1:18 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

20.35%chance

8223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

64

Will the Bay Area transit funding measure pass in November

Feb 4, 11:02 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

71.64%chance

695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

284

151

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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