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Prediction markets for Golden Gate

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.43%chance

509368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13135

3475

When will Waymo cross any Bay bridge?

Feb 25, 4:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84615

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2030

Before Jul 2030

Before Jul 2029

Before Jan 2029

Before Jan 2028

Before Jul 2028

Before Jul 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Jul 2026

95

95

90

85

80

80

62

15

0

Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2030? [ADD ANSWERS]

Apr 10, 10:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

414185

OptionProbability

Kerch Bridge (Crimea)

The Kremlin (Moscow, Russia)

Yamal-Europe Pipeline

Belo Monte Dam (Brazil)

Panama Canal (Panama)

Guri Dam (Venezuela)

Itaipu Dam (Brazil and Paraguay)

Suez Canal (Egypt)

Vatican City

Xiluodu Dam (China)

Baihetan Dam (China)

Three Gorges Dam (China)

The Great Sphinx of Giza (Egypt)

Golden Gate Bridge (United States)

Statue of Liberty (US)

The Empire State Building (US)

The Louvre (Paris, France)

Channel Tunnel (UK and France)

Hoover Dam (US)

Port of Houston (US)

The Holland Tunnel (The tunnel under the Hudson River) (NYC to NJ, US)

World Trade Center (New York, US)

Eiffel Tower (Paris, France)

97

47

35

26

25

25

24

21

21

19

17

17

16

12

12

12

12

11

10

10

10

10

10

Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities?

Jun 22, 5:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18%chance

312510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

47

Will Waymo give public driverless rides across the Golden Gate Bridge by the end of 2026?

Mar 17, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.23%chance

182096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2099

610

Will any car drive itself from the Empire State Building to the Golden Gate Bridge before April 2028?

Mar 14, 10:02 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

31.32%chance

351387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1371

650

Will the Bay Area transit funding measure pass in November

Feb 4, 11:02 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

69.95%chance

10522

OptionVotes

NO

YES

271

156

What will be the name of macOS 28?

Jul 6, 9:06 PMJun 7, 6:59 AM

694

OptionProbability

Other

Redwood

Mammoth

Tiburon

Miramar

Rincon

Shasta

Skyline

Pacific

Farallon

64

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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