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Prediction markets for Golden Gate

Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2030? [ADD ANSWERS]

Apr 10, 10:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

373655

OptionProbability

Kerch Bridge (Crimea)

Yamal-Europe Pipeline

Belo Monte Dam (Brazil)

Guri Dam (Venezuela)

Itaipu Dam (Brazil and Paraguay)

Panama Canal (Panama)

Vatican City

Suez Canal (Egypt)

Xiluodu Dam (China)

Baihetan Dam (China)

Three Gorges Dam (China)

The Great Sphinx of Giza (Egypt)

Golden Gate Bridge (United States)

Statue of Liberty (US)

The Empire State Building (US)

The Louvre (Paris, France)

Channel Tunnel (UK and France)

Hoover Dam (US)

Port of Houston (US)

World Trade Center (New York, US)

Eiffel Tower (Paris, France)

The Holland Tunnel (The tunnel under the Hudson River) (NYC to NJ, US)

99

35

26

25

24

22

21

20

19

17

17

16

12

12

12

12

11

10

10

10

10

9

Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities?

Jun 22, 5:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.85%chance

302424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

40

Will any car drive itself from the Empire State Building to the Golden Gate Bridge before April 2028?

Mar 14, 10:02 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

31.32%chance

351387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1371

650

Why is Claude 3.5 Sonnet such a good model for its size?

Jul 11, 8:22 AMJul 19, 6:59 AM

8547

OptionProbability

Pretraining data composition

Doesn't use any scale.ai training data

Offline policy learning RLHf

Task vectors like golden gate Claude

88

63

49

37

Will Golden Gate Park charge for street parking by 2026-06-30?

Feb 24, 12:01 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

4521

OptionProbability

No metered parking happens before 2026-06-30

2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31

2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30

Before 2025-09-30

2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31

90

3

3

2

2

Will any of the 26 arrested SF GGB Palestine protestors be convicted of false imprisonment

Apr 18, 1:18 AMApr 1, 6:59 AM

16.35%chance

4150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

56

Will the Bay Area transit funding initiative pass in November

Feb 4, 11:02 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

64.32%chance

445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

74

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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