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Prediction markets for Good Neighbor

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89425

8110

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.48%chance

5911988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2256

220

Will the Gulf Railway be completed by 2030?

Aug 15, 5:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

27.49%chance

7130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

145

Which actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively?

Oct 18, 3:33 AMDec 19, 3:55 AM

662

OptionProbability

Russia

North Korea

United States

Iran

Pakistan

China

Israel

India

Non-state actor

Other

40

10

7

7

7

6

6

6

6

6

Transparency into any useful internal pattern in LLM by EOY 20XY whose semantics was unfamiliar to AI & cog sci in 20NN?

Oct 23, 1:34 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

422

OptionProbability

By 2036... In 2006

By 2030... In 2006

By 2028... in 2008

By 2028... in 2006

72

59

50

50

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