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Prediction markets for Good Neighbor

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.63%chance

802467730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48915

11661

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.67%chance

5811984

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2244

222

Will the Gulf Railway be completed by 2030?

Aug 15, 5:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

29%chance

7120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

149

Which actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively?

Oct 18, 3:33 AMDec 19, 3:55 AM

653

OptionProbability

Russia

North Korea

United States

Iran

Pakistan

China

Israel

India

Non-state actor

Other

36

11

7

7

7

6

6

6

6

6

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