Good One News

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.98%chance

2668193

OptionVotes

YES

6211

4254

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6154714

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

Pat Scott @Stralor

@vi

@retr0id

@Quroe

@Bandors

@8my41

@Cy

@Eternal

@astroblob

@zhengkyl

@AlirezaAfshan

@Celene

@AtharvPatil

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17244365

OptionVotes

YES

1585

1297

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

2112892

OptionVotes

YES

10163

2023

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.48%chance

157839

OptionVotes

YES

9427

2859

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.48%chance

205553

OptionVotes

YES

10072

2801

When will AI forecasting crush human superforecasters?

Jul 7, 4:56 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

315230

OptionProbability

After June 2028

July 2027 to June 2028

Before July 2027

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

133709

OptionVotes

YES

6632

3220

Are the pronatalist couple good parents?

Jun 12, 8:06 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

47.75%chance

282492

OptionVotes

YES

1046

956

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

4047

3968

Thomas Tuchel decision market - will England make it to the final of the Euros?

Jul 18, 9:53 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

**Assuming Tuchel sacked** England make it to the final of the Euros

**Assuming Tuchel NOT sacked** England make it to the final of the Euros

What are your favorite quick, healthy, and tasty recipes for one adult and one toddler? Good lunch leftovers is a plus.

Oct 11, 2:50 PM

Good One News

Prediction markets for Good One

Prediction markets for Good One

Prediction markets for Good One

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

When will AI forecasting crush human superforecasters?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Are the pronatalist couple good parents?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Thomas Tuchel decision market - will England make it to the final of the Euros?

What are your favorite quick, healthy, and tasty recipes for one adult and one toddler? Good lunch leftovers is a plus.

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