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Prediction markets for Good One

Trump impose large tariffs in first year?

Oct 18, 11:16 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

99.57%chance

16091897885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243417

3324

Will Musk be on good terms with Trump at the end of 2025?

Nov 13, 4:14 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

15.77%chance

548336722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8665

5135

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.79%chance

1964882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6128

4633

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.44%chance

15835470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1721

1121

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

1812354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9625

2195

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.05%chance

145589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7177

3289

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Are the pronatalist couple good parents?

Jun 12, 8:06 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

47.75%chance

282492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

956

In one year from now, will Manifold think Trump's March-April tariff shenanigans were good for America/Americans?

Apr 11, 8:37 AMApr 12, 8:36 AM

4.98%chance

13559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

437

23

What are your favorite quick, healthy, and tasty recipes for one adult and one toddler? Good lunch leftovers is a plus.

Oct 11, 2:50 PM

00

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