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Top stories

Google Widens Rollout of Nude-Image Blur in Android Messages

Authors

5

3 days ago

Prediction markets for Google Account

Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced before 2026?

May 31, 8:03 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

58.85%chance

4511984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1196

836

Will Google Deepmind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:58 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

21.33%chance

2710339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19404

4922

When will a regular person be able to use AI to answer phone calls for them?

Mar 20, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

423590

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

Before 2025

Before 2024-07-01

Before 2024-10-01

87

80

79

65

56

0

0

0

Will Manifold add first-party sign-in in 2025?

May 27, 5:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

121418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will TikTok be available to US users in Apple and/or Google's official app store on December 31st, 2025?

Apr 24, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.36%chance

201119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

311

273

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Will the paper "Model Cards for Model Reporting" still be influential in 2025?

Aug 31, 3:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.25%chance

6410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

113

My stock portfolio reaches $10,000 by EOY 2025?

Aug 13, 10:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.33%chance

11202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

68

On which of these platforms will I post content in 2025?

Nov 25, 10:12 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7179

OptionProbability

Manifold

Reddit

Effective Altruism Forum / LessWrong

Soundcloud / Spotify

DeviantArt / ArtStation

Substack / a personal website

Xitter / Mastodon / Bluesky

Facebook / Instagram / Threads

YouTube / TikTok

Pornhub / XVideos / OnlyFans / Literotica

100

62

58

58

53

31

29

26

20

20

Київ (Kyiv) or Киев (Kiev) – which name will locals use more in 2025?

Mar 10, 5:01 AMJan 1, 12:00 PM

8121

OptionProbability

Киев

Київ

55

45

Will my brand new claude account get unbanned?

Jun 27, 8:40 PMDec 31, 9:34 PM

31.76%chance

696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

68

Will Google Drive keep 15GB of storage for free Google account until 2025?

Apr 20, 3:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.44%chance

574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

119

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