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Prediction markets for Google AI

Will Google Deepmind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:58 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

5.22%chance

3542971

OptionVotes

YES

NO

41906

2162

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Jun 21, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6.15%chance

498526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3906

256

Will a OpenAI, Anthropic, Google or Meta release an AI chatbot that has ads in the responses in 2025?

Dec 13, 8:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.22%chance

397384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4260

235

Will there be serious AI safety drama at Google or Deepmind before 2026?

Mar 20, 9:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6.89%chance

352967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3226

136

Will Google add AI image generation as an option to Google Images by the end of 2025?

Jun 30, 6:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.04%chance

82729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3694

332

Will Google DeepMind hire an AI welfare researcher before the end of 2025?

Feb 10, 10:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.52%chance

14594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

46

When will a Google AI system achieve an "Autonomy level 1" Machine Learning R&D risk level? [metaculus]

Jul 30, 3:52 PMJul 1, 3:50 PM

4570

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

80

72

66

60

55

55

45

37

24

11

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

42.45%chance

8445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

859

Google releases an AI world model game by June 1st 2026?

Oct 23, 11:30 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

28.95%chance

6274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

64

Will Google AI studio still exist as a product offering in 3 years?

Jun 20, 6:22 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM

55.15%chance

5241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

902

Google-Amazon AI training partnership by EOY 2026?

Oct 23, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.19%chance

3161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will Google add AI image generation as an option to Google Images by the end of 2026?

Sep 25, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.06%chance

8118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

639

571

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