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Prediction markets for Google AI Edge

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

501720246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14168

Will space be the cheapest place to put AI by end of Feb 2029?

Feb 16, 4:26 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

7.3%chance

10218953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3565

281

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Jul 17, 4:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

42%chance

707063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1272

725

Will retrieval-augmented-generation (RAG) still be used in 2026?

Aug 12, 4:11 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM

84.99%chance

211729

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2422

428

Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?

Jun 14, 2:21 AMJan 1, 2:21 AM

15.39%chance

121728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2345

426

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

730

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026?

Apr 14, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.74%chance

7479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026

Jun 1, 8:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14%chance

5430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

918

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