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Prediction markets for Google AI Edge

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.04%chance

508725007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16811

12177

Will space be the cheapest place to put AI by end of Feb 2029?

Feb 16, 4:26 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

10.24%chance

10921732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2960

338

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Jul 17, 4:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.88%chance

727116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

690

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.5%chance

246554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3092

324

Will retrieval-augmented-generation (RAG) still be used in 2026?

Aug 12, 4:11 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM

87.43%chance

241992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2685

386

Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026

Jun 1, 8:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.69%chance

71235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2166

824

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026?

Apr 14, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.6%chance

8535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Will Demis Hassabis still be at Google at the end of 2026?

Sep 1, 3:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.53%chance

9183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

1

Will eMudhra be in businesss EOY 2027?

Oct 24, 1:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.65%chance

7121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

57

Which lab will top Epoch AI's Capabilities Index (ECI) on November 30, 2026?

Oct 31, 2:58 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

7115

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google DeepMind

Other organization

47

42

7

4

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