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Prediction markets for Google AI Ultra

Will free Gemini app users get access to Gemini 4 Argon by November 15, 2026?

Oct 15, 9:55 AMNov 16, 7:59 AM

5.24%chance

5170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

84

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

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