Google API News

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

56.82%chance

5726974

OptionVotes

YES

114717

87171

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?

Apr 12, 12:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.47%chance

605883

OptionVotes

YES

1030

971

On what DAY will Gemini 3 be released?

Aug 5, 9:14 PMAug 31, 9:13 PM

195224

OptionProbability

Other

August 13

August 14

August 15

August 5

August 6

August 7

August 8

August 9

August 10

August 11

August 12

August 16

August 17

August 18

August 19

August 20

August 21

August 22

August 23

August 24

August 25

August 26

August 27

August 28

August 29

August 30

August 31

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Nov 20, 12:03 AMApr 4, 11:59 AM

222099

OptionProbability

The web will not substantially improve before 2032

There wont be one next web. Web browsers of the future will run many protocols, competently, which are fairly well integrated, and for which there is no obvious general purpose winner

The current web will reform before a transition can occur

Something from Epic Games

Appflowy

Ad4m

Orca Sandbox or something derived from it

WeChat

Flutter

Brave Browser

Replit

Anytype

Agregore Browser

Logseq

VRChat

Discord

Horizon Worlds

X.com

roblox

Playbit

Gopher

Fuchsia OS

The Zed editor

emacs

Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?

Jan 25, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.15%chance

15582

OptionVotes

YES

226

110

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

35.95%chance

13376

OptionVotes

YES

1200

853

Will WEI (Web engine integrity) be shipped in a stable Google Chrome release by the end of 2025?

Sep 5, 5:31 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

4.66%chance

3330

OptionVotes

YES

420

What LLM API will work unmodified until the end of 2025?

Mar 8, 2:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6115

OptionProbability

OpenAI Chat Completion API

Google Vertex AI Gemini

Mistral AI Chat Completion API

Google Gemini API

Will Claude and other base models support the Model Context Protocol (MCP) natively by 2026?

Apr 1, 5:41 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

70%chance

OptionVotes

YES

Google API News

Prediction markets for Google API

Prediction markets for Google API

Prediction markets for Google API

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?

On what DAY will Gemini 3 be released?

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

Will WEI (Web engine integrity) be shipped in a stable Google Chrome release by the end of 2025?

What LLM API will work unmodified until the end of 2025?

Will Claude and other base models support the Model Context Protocol (MCP) natively by 2026?

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