Google API News

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.33%chance

9558194

OptionVotes

YES

144253

69986

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

98.97%chance

3119748

OptionVotes

YES

10655

120

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.82%chance

9412544

OptionVotes

YES

12271

8388

Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?

Apr 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.42%chance

387095

OptionVotes

YES

2486

796

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Nov 20, 12:03 AMApr 4, 11:59 AM

243255

OptionProbability

The web will not substantially improve before 2032

WeChat

Appflowy

Agregore Browser

There wont be one next web. Web browsers of the future will run many protocols, competently, which are fairly well integrated, and for which there is no obvious general purpose winner

Orca Sandbox or something derived from it

The current web will reform before a transition can occur

Ad4m

Brave Browser

Replit

Something from Epic Games

Anytype

Logseq

Horizon Worlds

Modular Web

Playbit

VRChat

Discord

Flutter

Welkin

Gopher

Fuchsia OS

The Zed editor

emacs

World App (the one with the orbs)

X.com

roblox

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.31%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

1192

839

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Feb 16, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.93%chance

10317

OptionVotes

YES

178

Will Google publicly release Gemini 3.5 Pro before September 1, 2026?

Aug 8, 5:31 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

7261

OptionVotes

YES

173

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6204

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

May 31, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.85%chance

7171

OptionVotes

YES

224

Google AI Pro/Ultra usable in third party apps before 2027?

May 16, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.61%chance

545

OptionVotes

YES

134

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMAug 20, 7:59 PM

68.73%chance

212

OptionVotes

YES

105

Google API News

Prediction markets for Google API

Prediction markets for Google API

Prediction markets for Google API

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Will Google publicly release Gemini 3.5 Pro before September 1, 2026?

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

Google AI Pro/Ultra usable in third party apps before 2027?

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

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