Google API News

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

66.99%chance

8957065

OptionVotes

YES

143123

70539

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.16%chance

2711352

OptionVotes

YES

6226

197

Gemini 3.2 (Google) release date

Mar 29, 8:54 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

3710841

OptionProbability

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2027-02-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-19

Before May 2026

By when will Google add ads to Gemini?

Dec 8, 7:05 PMDec 8, 6:54 PM

229731

OptionProbability

By Jan 1, 2028

By Jan 1, 2027

By Dec 1, 2026

By Nov 1, 2026

By Oct 1, 2026

By Sep 1, 2026

By Aug 1, 2026

By Jul 1, 2026

By Jun 1, 2026

By May 1, 2026

By Jan 1, 2026

By Feb 1, 2026

By Mar 1, 2026

By Apr 1, 2026

Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?

Apr 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.85%chance

356572

OptionVotes

YES

2131

828

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Nov 20, 12:03 AMApr 4, 11:59 AM

243255

OptionProbability

The web will not substantially improve before 2032

WeChat

Appflowy

Agregore Browser

There wont be one next web. Web browsers of the future will run many protocols, competently, which are fairly well integrated, and for which there is no obvious general purpose winner

Orca Sandbox or something derived from it

The current web will reform before a transition can occur

Ad4m

Brave Browser

Replit

Something from Epic Games

Anytype

Logseq

Horizon Worlds

Modular Web

Playbit

VRChat

Discord

Flutter

Welkin

Gopher

Fuchsia OS

The Zed editor

emacs

World App (the one with the orbs)

X.com

roblox

When will Gemini CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Dec 30, 4:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33253

OptionProbability

June 2026

April 2026

May 2026

March 2026

December 2026 (or later)

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

January 2026

February 2026

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.31%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

1192

839

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Feb 16, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.93%chance

10317

OptionVotes

YES

178

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5185

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

Will we get AGI before widespread VR device usage in the US?

Feb 3, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71%chance

6117

OptionVotes

YES

156

Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?

Apr 29, 9:35 AMJul 31, 10:00 PM

74%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

147

Google API News

Prediction markets for Google API

Prediction markets for Google API

Prediction markets for Google API

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Gemini 3.2 (Google) release date

By when will Google add ads to Gemini?

Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

When will Gemini CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Will we get AGI before widespread VR device usage in the US?

Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?

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