OptionVotes
NO
YES
990
22
OptionProbability
Anthropic
OpenAI
Google
DeepSeek
xAI
Moonshot AI
Other
Meta
Mistral AI
Alibaba
MiniMax
Z.ai
65
12
10
2
1
Before H2 2030
Before H1 2030
Before H2 2029
Before H1 2029
Before H1 2028
Before H2 2028
Before H2 2027
Before H1 2027
Before H2 2026
Before H1 2026
80
72
66
60
55
45
37
24
11
243
41
63
59
50
31
20
14
147
68
Yes
N/A (unclear)
No
23
17
134
74