OptionVotes
YES
NO
4618
217
OptionProbability
Before H2 2030
Before H1 2030
Before H2 2029
Before H1 2029
Before H1 2028
Before H2 2028
Before H2 2027
Before H1 2027
Before H2 2026
Before H1 2026
80
72
66
60
55
45
37
24
11
63
59
50
41
31
20
14
OpenAI
Anthropic
Google
xAI
Other
DeepSeek
Meta
Mistral AI
Alibaba
Moonshot AI
MiniMax
Z.ai
30
21
4
2
147
68
