Google Index News

Will Kimi K3 cause widespread societal chaos?

Jul 17, 11:39 AMDec 31, 12:34 PM

2.19%chance

4526022

OptionVotes

YES

6687

150

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.9%chance

91750

OptionVotes

YES

2623

2468

Will a Google Deepmind model be ranked in the top 3 models at the end of 2026?

Aug 17, 5:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.57%chance

151707

OptionVotes

YES

1621

617

Which company's model will be #1 on Artificial Analysis at the end of September 2026

Aug 26, 4:48 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

171681

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

1659

603

Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26)

Aug 3, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.9%chance

4119

OptionVotes

YES

215

When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?

Oct 23, 11:41 AMJan 1, 12:36 PM

593

OptionProbability

Study that investigates short-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2040

Study conducted and released by 2035

Study that investigates long-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2030

Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?

Jul 6, 6:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

145

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

What is your prior for the ratio of attention to Greenland vs. attention to Venezuela?

Jan 29, 7:20 AM

170

Google Index News

Prediction markets for Google Index

Prediction markets for Google Index

Prediction markets for Google Index

Will Kimi K3 cause widespread societal chaos?

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Will a Google Deepmind model be ranked in the top 3 models at the end of 2026?

Which company's model will be #1 on Artificial Analysis at the end of September 2026

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26)

When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?

Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

What is your prior for the ratio of attention to Greenland vs. attention to Venezuela?

Latest stories