Google Index News

Will Kimi K3 cause widespread societal chaos?

Jul 17, 11:39 AMDec 31, 12:34 PM

6.22%chance

4532469

OptionVotes

YES

3885

257

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

90.22%chance

63575

OptionVotes

YES

3037

329

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.67%chance

112450

OptionVotes

YES

3168

2299

Will a Google Deepmind model be ranked in the top 3 models at the end of 2026?

Aug 17, 5:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.92%chance

222242

OptionVotes

YES

1396

716

Where will Gemini 4 Pro score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index vs the leading model prior to its inclusion?

Sep 30, 2:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5264

OptionProbability

Gemini 4 Pro 5-8 points worse

Gemini 4 Pro 0-4 points worse

Gemini 4 Pro ≥9 points worse

Gemini 4 Pro scores higher than the prior leading model

Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26)

Aug 3, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.9%chance

4119

OptionVotes

YES

215

Which lab will top Epoch AI's Capabilities Index (ECI) on November 30, 2026?

Oct 31, 2:58 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

7115

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google DeepMind

Other organization

When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?

Oct 23, 11:41 AMJan 1, 12:36 PM

593

OptionProbability

Study that investigates short-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2040

Study conducted and released by 2035

Study that investigates long-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2030

Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?

Jul 6, 6:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

145

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

124

OptionVotes

YES

124

What is your prior for the ratio of attention to Greenland vs. attention to Venezuela?

Jan 29, 7:20 AM

170

Google Index News

Prediction markets for Google Index

Prediction markets for Google Index

Prediction markets for Google Index

Will Kimi K3 cause widespread societal chaos?

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Will a Google Deepmind model be ranked in the top 3 models at the end of 2026?

Where will Gemini 4 Pro score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index vs the leading model prior to its inclusion?

Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26)

Which lab will top Epoch AI's Capabilities Index (ECI) on November 30, 2026?

When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?

Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

What is your prior for the ratio of attention to Greenland vs. attention to Venezuela?

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