Google Labs News

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87.08%chance

5012445

OptionVotes

YES

2596

385

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.17%chance

1459535

OptionVotes

YES

6060

4388

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

21.13%chance

256169

OptionVotes

YES

1935

518

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

91.72%chance

193739

OptionVotes

YES

3341

301

AI Singularity (props)

Mar 7, 12:48 PMMar 7, 12:48 PM

112783

OptionProbability

The top Elo score on the EQ-Bench Creative Writing v3 leaderboard exceeds 2000 before 2027-01-01

At least three major AI labs (xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind) release public multi-LLM agentic reasoning models before 2027-01-01

xAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Anthropic makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

OpenAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Google DeepMind makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

An international agreement signed by governments of at least the United States and China, restricting frontier AI research to mitigate extinction risks, before 2027-01-01

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

211899

OptionVotes

YES

1227

818

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Nov 5, 9:15 PMDec 15, 11:59 PM

3.12%chance

7798

OptionVotes

YES

557

Will AI be officially recognized as ‘AGI’ (Artificial General Intelligence) before the end of 2027?

Dec 10, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.66%chance

15450

OptionVotes

YES

264

will i get a full-time frontier lab offer by end of september 2027

May 20, 3:55 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

31.55%chance

5367

OptionVotes

YES

147

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6204

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Demis Hassabis still at Google end of 2027?

Aug 8, 1:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.5%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

1010

990

Google Labs News

Prediction markets for Google Labs

Prediction markets for Google Labs

Prediction markets for Google Labs

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

AI Singularity (props)

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Will AI be officially recognized as ‘AGI’ (Artificial General Intelligence) before the end of 2027?

will i get a full-time frontier lab offer by end of september 2027

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Demis Hassabis still at Google end of 2027?

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