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Top stories

Google’s Veo 3 Learns to Follow Hand-Drawn Video Instructions

Google’s Veo 3 Learns to Follow Hand-Drawn Video Instructions

Authors

6

8 days ago

Prediction markets for Google Labs

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93.97%chance

4911431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3948

253

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.67%chance

1388307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2986

2139

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?

Apr 12, 12:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.47%chance

605883

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

971

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

82.44%chance

443737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2178

414

Will SNL make a sketch involving any big AI lab before the end of 2025?

Feb 7, 7:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.43%chance

151833

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

809

Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?

Nov 27, 6:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17952

OptionProbability

US

China

UK

EU

UAE

East/South-East Asia excl. China

Israel

97

37

19

10

4

3

2

Will a major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, or Meta) acquire a neurotech startup in 2025?

Mar 8, 11:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.99%chance

15845

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

905

Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?

Jan 25, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.15%chance

15582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

110

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

Apr 20, 3:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.02%chance

13293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

248

40

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

13.89%chance

9272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

362

74

Will the Gulf of Mexico/America label change on Google Maps by the end of 2025?

Feb 18, 5:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.23%chance

7186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

61

[Carlini questions] At least one of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind will be functionally dead

Mar 24, 2:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4147

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

34

34

26

17

5

Latest stories

Latest stories

Jul 25, 2025
Jul 25, 2025
AI Modeling
AI
Google’s Veo 3 Learns to Follow Hand-Drawn Video Instructions
Authors
6
8 days ago

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