Google One News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.93%chance

506724947

OptionVotes

YES

16828

12117

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.69%chance

9391230

OptionVotes

YES

88682

36230

Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months?

Nov 8, 12:33 AMAug 20, 3:59 AM

2.03%chance

2448283

OptionVotes

YES

39044

1407

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

1479885

OptionVotes

YES

6410

4263

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

18.49%chance

256659

OptionVotes

YES

2103

477

Will Mr Beast ever be elected President of the United States of America?

Aug 30, 10:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5%chance

222601

OptionVotes

YES

1184

959

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

1014

884

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

YES

1679

610

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

Aug 4, 9:29 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

121955

OptionProbability

Unproven but promising: Too early to tell

Ineffective: Any benefits are too small to be worth the drawbacks

Valuable but imperfect: Some healthy adults should consider it, but there are major drawbacks

Harmful/scandalous: Clear serious drawbacks that last beyond cessation of treatment

Wonder-drug: Most adults should consider it

Which Google Products are likely to be discontinued in 2030?

May 23, 7:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8572

OptionProbability

Google Groups

Google Shopping (website)

Google Fit

Google Classroom

Google TV (Formely Google Play Movies and TV)

Google Nest

Google One

Google Finance

Google Books

Google Sites

Google Flights

Will AI take over density functional theory by 2035?

Nov 27, 1:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.05%chance

10358

OptionVotes

YES

1122

880

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

Oct 11, 3:18 PMOct 19, 3:59 AM

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Google One News

Prediction markets for Google One

Prediction markets for Google One

Prediction markets for Google One

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Q-Day before 2030?

Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Will Mr Beast ever be elected President of the United States of America?

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

Which Google Products are likely to be discontinued in 2030?

Will AI take over density functional theory by 2035?

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

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