Google One News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

496718482

OptionVotes

YES

16300

14169

Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months?

Nov 8, 12:33 AMAug 20, 3:59 AM

2%chance

2248257

OptionVotes

YES

39449

1399

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27%chance

1459501

OptionVotes

YES

3594

1876

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

YES

1461

556

Will Mr Beast ever be elected President of the United States of America?

Aug 30, 10:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5%chance

222601

OptionVotes

YES

1184

959

Daily Coinflip

Mar 23, 10:27 AMMar 25, 3:59 AM

50.15%chance

232480

OptionVotes

YES

10031

9969

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Will the Elbaf arc have a higher peak worldwide Google Trends search interest than any previous One Piece arc?

Nov 1, 5:49 PMJan 1, 1:00 PM

60%chance

91119

OptionVotes

YES

1225

816

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

Aug 4, 9:29 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

10662

OptionProbability

Ineffective: Any benefits are too small to be worth the drawbacks

Unproven but promising: Too early to tell

Valuable but imperfect: Some healthy adults should consider it, but there are major drawbacks

Harmful/scandalous: Clear serious drawbacks that last beyond cessation of treatment

Wonder-drug: Most adults should consider it

Will AI take over density functional theory by 2035?

Nov 27, 1:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.05%chance

10358

OptionVotes

YES

1122

880

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

1059

1041

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

Oct 11, 3:18 PMOct 19, 3:59 AM

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Google One News

Prediction markets for Google One

Prediction markets for Google One

Prediction markets for Google One

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Will Mr Beast ever be elected President of the United States of America?

Daily Coinflip

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will the Elbaf arc have a higher peak worldwide Google Trends search interest than any previous One Piece arc?

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

Will AI take over density functional theory by 2035?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

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