Google One News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

501720246

OptionVotes

YES

16300

14168

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.22%chance

8988238

OptionVotes

YES

86621

36681

Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months?

Nov 8, 12:33 AMAug 20, 3:59 AM

2.03%chance

2348282

OptionVotes

YES

39043

1407

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.17%chance

1459535

OptionVotes

YES

6060

4388

Will Mr Beast ever be elected President of the United States of America?

Aug 30, 10:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5%chance

222601

OptionVotes

YES

1184

959

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

1014

884

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Daily Coinflip

Jun 24, 4:15 AMJun 26, 3:59 AM

50.93%chance

141575

OptionVotes

YES

10188

9815

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

Aug 4, 9:29 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

111012

OptionProbability

Ineffective: Any benefits are too small to be worth the drawbacks

Unproven but promising: Too early to tell

Valuable but imperfect: Some healthy adults should consider it, but there are major drawbacks

Harmful/scandalous: Clear serious drawbacks that last beyond cessation of treatment

Wonder-drug: Most adults should consider it

Will AI take over density functional theory by 2035?

Nov 27, 1:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.05%chance

10358

OptionVotes

YES

1122

880

Which Google Products are likely to be discontinued in 2030?

May 23, 7:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7162

OptionProbability

Google Groups

Google Shopping (website)

Google Nest

Google One

Google Flights

Google Classroom

Google TV (Formely Google Play Movies and TV)

Google Fit

Google Finance

Google Sites

Google Books

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

Oct 11, 3:18 PMOct 19, 3:59 AM

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Google One News

Prediction markets for Google One

Prediction markets for Google One

Prediction markets for Google One

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Q-Day before 2030?

Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Will Mr Beast ever be elected President of the United States of America?

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Daily Coinflip

What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?

Will AI take over density functional theory by 2035?

Which Google Products are likely to be discontinued in 2030?

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

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