OptionProbability
Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work
Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)
Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks
Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues
Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery
55
47
46
45
Google Fi Wireless
Microsoft Paint
Copilot
Xbox
Fuchsia OS
ChromeBook
Microsoft PowerPoint
Google Pay
Google Slides
Gemini
Google TV
Windows
Android
Google Maps
Microsoft Word
Google Sheets
Google Docs
Microsoft Excel
Xbox Game Pass
69
65
50
32
27
