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Prediction markets for Google Translate

Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months?

Nov 8, 12:33 AMAug 20, 3:59 AM

2%chance

2248274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

39432

1399

When will human interpreters become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

9.44%chance

449770

OptionProbability

YES

NO

4900

3402

When will human translators become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 5:12 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

14.28%chance

241489

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1297

1143

Will Animal to Human translation be possible by 2050?

Oct 5, 1:23 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

85%chance

10590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

363

32

Will "Prompt injection in Google Translate reveals ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 8, 11:05 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.82%chance

2288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

960

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

349

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

No

57

25

18

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