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Prediction markets for Google Ultra

Will the next version of Google's LLMs NOT have Flash / Pro / Ultra or other words after the number?

May 20, 8:01 PMMay 20, 7:59 PM

4.48%chance

74171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4618

217

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Mar 1, 10:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

271156

OptionProbability

Find a room temperature superconductor, highly efficient photovoltaic cells, or an ultra-strong lightweight material

Find a cure for cancer, Alzheimer's or Diabetis

29

23

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

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