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Prediction markets for Governance Poll

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

57.71%chance

8118684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

893

Will Somebody Try to Ban the AfD before 2027?

Jan 20, 9:57 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20%chance

4012240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

869

Will the US Federal Government spend more than 1/1000th of its budget on AI Safety by 2028?

Aug 12, 9:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.42%chance

353823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1169

949

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

78.94%chance

73804

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

985

Will Germany tighten its refugee policy before 2030?

Jul 11, 7:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

83.18%chance

503566

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1899

686

Was 9/11 an inside job? (2100)

Oct 19, 3:51 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

6.38%chance

252878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2121

853

Will German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?

Sep 3, 8:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15%chance

242275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

459

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

151050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

940

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.2%chance

9515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1272

786

Will Bavaria be an independent nation by 2050?

Oct 4, 8:36 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8.92%chance

9342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

414

140

Will a serious incident caused by AI happen that causes a severe public backlash (akin to Nuclear Fission) by 2040?

Mar 20, 9:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.2%chance

15304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

951

Will xAI receive preferential treatment* by the Trump administration in 2025?

Nov 6, 6:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20.07%chance

5170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

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