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Prediction markets for Government Resolutions

2028 US Presidential Election winner?

Jan 10, 6:40 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

710774425

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Other

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Ron DeSantis

Gretchen Whitmer

Donald Trump (Sr.)

Andy Beshear

Marco Rubio

No 2028 Election

Nikki Haley

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ivanka Trump

Tulsi Gabbard

Tim Walz

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

JB Pritzker

Glenn Youngkin

Wes Moore

Ruben Gallego

Elon Musk

Tucker Carlson

Joe Rogan

Kanye West

Tim Scott

Dean Phillips

Mark Kelly

Jimmy Donaldson(MrBeast)

Greg Abbott

Mike Gallagher

Elissa Slotkin

Tammy Baldwin

Jacky Rosen

Shawn Fain

Abigail Spanberger

Mike Johnson

27

22

9

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

42.09%chance

555181377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2731

1983

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

80%chance

4624367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3882

2007

Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?

Jan 22, 4:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12%chance

2423827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12196

9630

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

56.59%chance

1320593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11224

8946

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Jan 22, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.76%chance

10518956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15777

4360

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

98274

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

78

64

56

50

49

47

39

39

30

25

21

19

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

17.63%chance

496222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4593

1443

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.7%chance

2400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

1820

Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030

Jul 13, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

46.34%chance

4200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2091

1916

What Will Happen In or before January 2026 [ADD RESPONSE]

Dec 4, 8:54 AMFeb 1, 6:29 PM

00

OptionProbability

EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) enters definitive period

Federal Gift and Estate Tax Exemptions expire

Major changes to UK GCSE exam policies take effect

Significant Microsoft product reaches end of support

New EU carbon pricing regulations for imported goods begin

Changes to US tax exemption limits occur

50

50

50

50

50

50

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