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GPQA Diamond News
Prediction markets for GPQA Diamond
Prediction markets for GPQA Diamond
What year will an o3-mini level model first run on a phone?
Jun 24, 8:26 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
15
4860
Option
Probability
2026
2025
2027
2028
2029 or Later
72
11
10
5
2
Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?
Aug 5, 9:17 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
5.72%
chance
8
1095
Option
Votes
YES
NO
406
25
Will any Qwen 3.5 model beat Gemini 3 Pro's Artificial Analysis intelligence score by the end of March?
Feb 17, 12:52 PM
Mar 31, 10:59 PM
30.09%
chance
3
89
Option
Votes
YES
NO
152
66
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