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Top stories

Nvidia Unveils 9-Billion-Parameter Nemotron Nano Model With 6× Speed Boost

Nvidia Unveils 9-Billion-Parameter Nemotron Nano Model With 6× Speed Boost

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for GPQA

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.76%chance

2311205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3040

329

Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?

Jan 18, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

98.29%chance

359766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8956

350

What year will an o3-mini level model first run on a phone?

Jun 24, 8:26 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

155264

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029 or Later

76

11

6

5

2

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

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