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Top stories

Nvidia Unveils 9-Billion-Parameter Nemotron Nano Model With 6× Speed Boost

Nvidia Unveils 9-Billion-Parameter Nemotron Nano Model With 6× Speed Boost

Authors

12

6 months ago

Prediction markets for GPQA

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20.03%chance

217990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1998

500

What year will an o3-mini level model first run on a phone?

Jun 24, 8:26 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

144660

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029 or Later

68

13

11

5

2

Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?

Jan 18, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.58%chance

304337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3928

505

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163500

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

57

39

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?

Aug 5, 9:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.72%chance

81095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

406

25

Why is Claude 3.5 Sonnet such a good model for its size?

Jul 11, 8:22 AMJul 19, 6:59 AM

8547

OptionProbability

Pretraining data composition

Doesn't use any scale.ai training data

Offline policy learning RLHf

Task vectors like golden gate Claude

88

63

49

37

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark?

Jul 13, 10:10 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2278

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

32

23

18

15

12

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