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Top stories

Nvidia Unveils 9-Billion-Parameter Nemotron Nano Model With 6× Speed Boost

Nvidia Unveils 9-Billion-Parameter Nemotron Nano Model With 6× Speed Boost

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for GPQA

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark?

Jul 13, 10:10 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

821146

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

91

3

3

2

2

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.81%chance

218140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2148

466

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

166776

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

54

18

What year will an o3-mini level model first run on a phone?

Jun 24, 8:26 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

155014

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2025

2028

2029 or Later

74

10

9

5

2

Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?

Jan 18, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.63%chance

324764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3954

504

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?

Aug 5, 9:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.72%chance

81095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

406

25

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