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GPT API News

Will GPT-6 be released by OpenAI before the end of December 31, 2025?

Oct 17, 3:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.25%chance

2915810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6595

152

Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?

Jan 22, 12:38 AMDec 29, 12:59 PM

98.95%chance

2012797

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12890

469

On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?

Dec 28, 2:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.28%chance

266937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2672

374

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Mar 16, 4:29 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

15.71%chance

606910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1753

781

Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?

Mar 20, 2:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.8%chance

394800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2315

434

Will an AI provider be sued due to the actions taken by their AI by the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

83.98%chance

222135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1480

871

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

Feb 17, 4:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31138

OptionProbability

Q1/Q2 '26

Q3/Q4 '25

Q3/Q4 '26

Q1/Q2 '27

Q1/Q2 '25

Q3/Q4 '27

2028 or later

25

19

19

15

11

7

5

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

19.01%chance

151129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1953

581

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4655

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

15

15

15

15

15

12

9

4

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a frontier model be delayed in the EU by 90+ days in 2025?

Aug 15, 1:29 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

34.87%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1367

732

What will the lowest initial API price of GPT-5 be?

Jun 18, 4:44 PMJan 2, 12:59 AM

3100

OptionProbability

$0.03 - $0.06

$0.06 - $0.12

$0.12 - $0.24

GPT-5 will exist by close date but not be accessible through API

$0.24 - $0.48

<$0.003

$0.01 - $0.03

>$0.48

$0.003 - $0.01

GPT-5 will not exist by close date

27

27

10

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

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