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Prediction markets for GPT API

Will GPT-5 be capable of recursive self-improvement?

Mar 31, 6:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.86%chance

19380226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5178

711

Will the fifth major model iteration of OpenAI contain the string "GPT-5" in its name (API)?

Jun 20, 4:24 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93.31%chance

227035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2202

831

Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?

Jan 22, 12:38 AMDec 29, 12:59 PM

96.6%chance

184795

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5081

615

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Mar 16, 4:29 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

24.48%chance

554422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

919

On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?

Dec 28, 2:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.5%chance

233794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1584

631

Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?

Mar 20, 2:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.35%chance

343752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1245

808

How many days will it take for GPT-4.5's API price to at least halve?

Feb 27, 8:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61182

Will an AI provider be sued due to the actions taken by their AI by the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.92%chance

181002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

463

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

35.95%chance

13376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

853

Will OpenAI provide API access to o4 within 30 days of releasing GPT-5?

Jul 27, 12:46 AMJan 1, 1:46 AM

8.16%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

335

30

Will OpenAI provide API access to o5-mini within 30 days of releasing GPT-5?

Jul 27, 12:46 AMJan 1, 1:46 AM

16.85%chance

6171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

222

45

What will the lowest initial API price of GPT-5 be?

Jun 18, 4:44 PMJan 2, 12:59 AM

3100

OptionProbability

$0.03 - $0.06

$0.06 - $0.12

$0.12 - $0.24

GPT-5 will not exist by close date

GPT-5 will exist by close date but not be accessible through API

$0.24 - $0.48

<$0.003

$0.01 - $0.03

>$0.48

$0.003 - $0.01

27

26

10

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

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