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Prediction markets for GPT Engineer

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

35.25%chance

9531274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

922

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-3 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13.3%chance

3813776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1263

918

Will any GPT beat Stockfish in a fair fight before 2030?

Dec 14, 3:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.86%chance

5510779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

892

GPT 5.2 Pro METR time horizon

Jan 23, 9:29 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

149415

OptionProbability

9h00 - 10h00

8h00 - 9h00

7h00 -8h00

Other

6h00 - 7h00

3h00 - 3h30

3h30 - 4h00

4h00 - 4h30

4h30 - 5h00

5h00 - 5h30

5h30 - 6h00

< 2h

2h00 - 2h30

2h30 - 3h00

28

26

22

11

7

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11.93%chance

286210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

946

GPT 5.3 METR time horizon

Feb 2, 5:24 PMApr 1, 4:22 PM

172858

OptionProbability

8h - 10h

10h - 12h

6h - 8h

12h - 14h

< 4h

4h - 6h

14h - 16h

> 16h

37

28

15

7

3

3

3

3

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.05%chance

262827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

914

Will training on o1/o3 traces improve GPT-5 performance on a broad set of tasks?

Jan 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.98%chance

3180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

In 2027, will AI be able to generate a good "X-ing the technical interview" aphyr.com post?

Jan 4, 2:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.7%chance

3159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

45

Will NASA approve the Uranus Orbiter before 2030?

Mar 30, 10:44 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

33.78%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

82

Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter]

Sep 13, 6:36 AMSep 14, 6:59 AM

8.9%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

36

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