GPT Next News

Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?

May 19, 1:01 AMJan 1, 2:00 AM

93.54%chance

8616508

OptionVotes

YES

3806

263

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Aug 8, 7:45 PMDec 31, 8:44 PM

3612813

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

Before April 2026

Before May 2026

Before June 2026

Before July 2026

Before August 2026

Before September 2026

By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

Feb 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

269278

OptionProbability

Before 2035-01-01

Before 2030-01-01

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2024-06-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2026-01-01

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Apr 18, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 3:59 PM

63.39%chance

696760

OptionVotes

YES

1483

342

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.48%chance

474616

OptionVotes

YES

3122

158

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43%chance

333838

OptionVotes

YES

1190

253

Will GPT-6 be released before January 1, 2027?

Jul 11, 8:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99.03%chance

253522

OptionVotes

YES

1172

Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?

Sep 3, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.18%chance

91236

OptionVotes

YES

1419

705

What Will Be the Next Big Tech Industry Hype Cycle Thing After GPT-Enabled LLM's?

Mar 12, 6:40 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM

19463

OptionProbability

Robots

Some As of Early 2024 Not Even Published Yet Architecture as Revolutionary as Transformers was in 2017

Synthetic Biology / Genetic Engineering: For example, developing new vaccines, engineering proteins for sustainable fabric production, developing cell-cultured meats, plant-based meat alternatives, and engineering human immune cells.

Quantum Computing

Will the next major AI model (GPT-5, Gemini 2.0, etc.) be able to correctly predict this market's resolution?

Dec 14, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.91%chance

8249

OptionVotes

YES

163

OpenAI will acheive market dominance with GPT (AKA monopoly) and then INCREASE prices within the next 10 years

Jul 18, 6:19 AMJul 25, 6:59 AM

27.28%chance

495

OptionVotes

YES

163

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

665

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

GPT Next News

Prediction markets for GPT Next

Prediction markets for GPT Next

Prediction markets for GPT Next

Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

Will GPT-6 be released before January 1, 2027?

Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?

What Will Be the Next Big Tech Industry Hype Cycle Thing After GPT-Enabled LLM's?

Will the next major AI model (GPT-5, Gemini 2.0, etc.) be able to correctly predict this market's resolution?

OpenAI will acheive market dominance with GPT (AKA monopoly) and then INCREASE prices within the next 10 years

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

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