OptionProbability
2028
2027
2029
2026
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034 or 2035
2036-2040
2024 or 2025
After 2040 or never
18
14
7
6
5
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Q3 2026
Q4 2026
Q1 2027
After Q1 2027
Q4 2025
26
12
10
4
No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)
No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.
Yes: transformers scale the best
No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)
46
35
11
