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Prediction markets for GPT4

Will GPT5 show clear signs of diminishing returns?

Mar 30, 5:00 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53.4%chance

25927595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1855

1089

Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

Apr 1, 6:39 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

79.43%chance

826082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1499

811

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.68%chance

195588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10173

3993

Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?

Apr 28, 6:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.22%chance

435303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2208

382

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.02%chance

504175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1528

654

Is GPT4 sentient?

May 3, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.2%chance

392573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2460

782

How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)

Feb 27, 11:49 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

12566

OptionProbability

Other

1 month

Never (ie OpenAI releases a better model before anyone else can)

3 months

1 week

6 months

28

27

19

10

8

8

How many parameters does GPT4o have?

Jun 2, 7:17 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

5513

OptionProbability

250B-700B

35B-100B

700B-2T

2T-5T

100B-250B

Not known before 2035

<5B

5B-13B

13B-35B

>5T

17

12

11

10

9

9

8

8

8

8

In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?

Mar 29, 4:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.88%chance

7311

OptionProbability

NO

YES

387

208

In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?

Mar 14, 8:52 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.56%chance

8236

OptionProbability

NO

YES

399

283

Will LLMs such as GPT4 be considered a solution to Moravec’s paradox by 2030?

Aug 11, 2:22 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM

20.02%chance

8215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

114

What will the aggregate improvement of GPT5 be over GPT4 in terms of metrics?

Apr 1, 6:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66.54%chance

4168

OptionProbability

NO

YES

318

305

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