OptionProbability
U-1
U-3
U-2
U-4
U-5
34
26
24
OpenAI
Other
Google DeepMind
Alphabet but not Google DeepMind
Anthropic
xAI
I will not be employed
The Center for Humane Technology
Protocol Labs
Center for AI Safety
Alignment Research Center
MIRI
Future of Life Institute
Ought
METR
AI Safety Institute
WIkimedia Foundation
Mozilla Foundation
OpenStreetMap Foundation
50
4
3
2
250B-700B
35B-100B
700B-2T
2T-5T
100B-250B
Not known before 2035
<5B
5B-13B
13B-35B
>5T
17
12
11
10
9
8
