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Prediction markets for GPT5

Will GPT5 show clear signs of diminishing returns?

Mar 30, 5:00 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53.4%chance

25927595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1855

1089

Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

Apr 1, 6:39 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

79.43%chance

826082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1499

811

Will "You can't eval GPT5 anymore" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 19, 9:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.12%chance

41258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2197

880

Will GPT5 help produce a convincing solution to the "Taiwan issue" acceptable to all sides?

Mar 24, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.03%chance

19952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1361

933

Will GPT5 integrate SORA?

Feb 17, 5:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.53%chance

9587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

620

37

How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)

Feb 27, 11:49 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

12566

OptionProbability

Other

1 month

Never (ie OpenAI releases a better model before anyone else can)

3 months

1 week

6 months

28

27

19

10

8

8

What will the aggregate improvement of GPT5 be over GPT4 in terms of metrics?

Apr 1, 6:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66.54%chance

4168

OptionProbability

NO

YES

318

305

would claude 4 beat gpt5 in a game of go?

Dec 18, 7:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.6%chance

687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

63

Will GPT5 (or successor) find Jose Luis Ricon's future girlfriend/wife/WAIFU for him?

Apr 27, 9:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.61%chance

485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Will manifold be part of GPT5's training data?

Sep 21, 8:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

188

101

Will supplementary data and table in journal articles be part of GPT5?

Apr 11, 5:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.05%chance

366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

58

Does constantly using thinking-based-LLMs (eg GPT5Thinking)...

Oct 27, 12:18 AM

110

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