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Top stories

OpenAI Nears August 2025 GPT-5 Release With Reinforcement Learning Advances and New AI Products

OpenAI Nears August 2025 GPT-5 Release With Reinforcement Learning Advances and New AI Products

Authors

14

13 hours ago

OpenAI’s Lobster GPT-5 Model With June 2024 Cutoff Outperforms Nectarine and Starfish, Predicts Trump Win and Bitcoin Above $85K

OpenAI’s Lobster GPT-5 Model With June 2024 Cutoff Outperforms Nectarine and Starfish, Predicts Trump Win and Bitcoin Above $85K

Authors

5

9 days ago

Anthropic Blocks OpenAI From Claude Code After Terms Breach

Anthropic Blocks OpenAI From Claude Code After Terms Breach

Authors

7

16 hours ago

Alibaba Launches Non-Reasoning Qwen3-235B-A22B Model on Hugging Face With MoE Architecture; Boson AI Debuts Higgs Audio V2 TTS

Authors

7

11 days ago

Leaked GitHub Commit Hints OpenAI’s GPT-5 Launch Is Weeks Away

Authors

13

14 days ago

OpenAI Launches ChatGPT Image Generation on WhatsApp via 1-800-ChatGPT with GPT-4o Features and No Extra App Needed

Authors

24

2 months ago

Prediction markets for GPT

Will GPT-5 be capable of recursive self-improvement?

Mar 31, 6:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.86%chance

19380226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5178

711

What will GPT-5's context size be? (2025)

Jun 3, 2:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9536685

OptionProbability

1024k

256k

4096k

128k

2048k

512k

4k

64k

0

2k

8k

16k

32k

34

15

15

12

10

9

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

GPT-5 released before August 15, 2025?

Jul 31, 4:42 AMAug 15, 6:59 AM

67.9%chance

15935705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2806

1468

GPT-5's 50% time horizon, per METR

Jul 29, 8:35 PMAug 29, 8:27 PM

6426977

OptionProbability

2h - 2.5h

2.5h - 3h

3h - 3.5h

1.5h - 2h

3.5h - 4h

<1.5h

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

11h - 12h

>=12h

20

19

15

13

9

7

7

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

When will GPT-5 be released? (2025)

Apr 6, 3:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.31%chance

6718307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4106

428

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Jun 8, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7816538

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

Other

AMD

OpenAI or another company founded by Sam Altman

Google

Intel

64

15

6

5

5

3

2

Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?

Dec 13, 1:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.03%chance

4214355

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3608

700

Will GPT-5 have fewer parameters than GPT-4? (1500M subsidy)

Jun 22, 6:13 AMDec 31, 10:29 AM

17.09%chance

9612803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4153

2667

Will GPT-5 be GPT-5o?

Jul 5, 4:23 PMJan 1, 5:20 PM

89.49%chance

4411253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8670

1194

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11.49%chance

286165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1245

940

Will it be revealed that GPT-5 was used for how GPT-5 will be released?

Apr 9, 1:19 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

67.64%chance

513930

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1723

947

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)

Nov 15, 11:14 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

57.93%chance

221154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1586

1220

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