GPT News
Top stories
OpenAI’s Altman Concedes GPT-5 Missteps, Vows Faster GPT-6
Authors
13
7 months ago
Prediction markets for GPT
Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?
Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.04%chance
7975784
OptionVotes
24743
4041
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?
Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
30.76%chance
9531424
OptionVotes
1365
1072
OptionProbability
69
11
6
5
4
3
3
Will GPT-5 have a perfect SAT score in either section?
Mar 31, 11:37 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
52.62%chance
13120586
OptionVotes
1221
725
OptionVotes
1734
578
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?
Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
11.93%chance
286210
OptionVotes
1201
946
Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?
Apr 9, 4:13 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM
28.1%chance
475154
OptionVotes
1699
337
GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).
Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM
78.95%chance
232378
OptionVotes
1657
1487
Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)
Nov 15, 11:14 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM
57.93%chance
221154
OptionVotes
1586
1220
GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?
Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.83%chance
22864
OptionVotes
1124
534
In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?
Nov 15, 6:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
22.59%chance
15791
OptionProbability
1071
970
Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?
Jul 21, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.47%chance
16527
OptionVotes
1303
1298