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Top stories

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

Prediction Markets

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

Authors

5

1 year ago

OpenAI’s Altman Concedes GPT-5 Missteps, Vows Faster GPT-6

OpenAI’s Altman Concedes GPT-5 Missteps, Vows Faster GPT-6

Authors

13

1 year ago

OpenAI Launches GPT-5 Powered Codex Update With IDE Extension, Local-Cloud Task Handoff, GitHub Reviews, and Revamped CLI

OpenAI Launches GPT-5 Powered Codex Update With IDE Extension, Local-Cloud Task Handoff, GitHub Reviews, and Revamped CLI

Authors

15

1 year ago

Prefect Launches FastMCP Cloud, Promising One-Minute MCP Server Deployment

Authors

4

1 year ago

Oracle Integrates OpenAI’s GPT-5 as Enterprise Demand Surges

Authors

67

1 year ago

OpenAI’s GPT-5 Impresses With 400k Context Window and Deeper Reasoning

Authors

11

1 year ago

GPT-5 Jailbreak and AI Agent Attacks Fuel Cyber Threats by Russian, Chinese Groups Targeting Cloud and IoT Systems

Authors

7

1 year ago

New AI Models Batter European Software Stocks, Fuel Rush Into Nvidia

Authors

11

1 year ago

Prediction markets for GPT

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.01%chance

8579364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20640

4845

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

29.94%chance

10332775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1104

Will GPT-5 have a perfect SAT score in either section?

Mar 31, 11:37 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.62%chance

13120586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

725

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11%chance

286231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

934

Will GPT-6 be considered to be AGI?

Aug 7, 6:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.34%chance

316008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3551

91

Does GPT-5.2 use a different base model than GPT-5.1?

Dec 12, 6:34 PMDec 31, 6:34 PM

73%chance

144622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1644

608

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.48%chance

474616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3122

158

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

592

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)

Nov 15, 11:14 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

57.93%chance

221154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1586

1220

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

23884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

495

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Nov 15, 6:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.59%chance

15791

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1071

970

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