GPTs News

Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?

Jan 22, 12:38 AMDec 29, 12:59 PM

98.95%chance

2012797

OptionVotes

YES

12890

469

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

15.46%chance

5711934

OptionVotes

YES

2194

231

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.55%chance

433595

OptionVotes

YES

1634

496

Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?

Jan 26, 2:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

33.62%chance

253195

OptionVotes

YES

1405

712

Qualia: GPTs vs characters in dreams. Resolves when there is consensus on how to test for qualia (likely never haha)

Feb 28, 11:23 AMMar 4, 4:59 AM

211

OptionProbability

Neither Large GPTs nor characters in dreams have qualia

Large GPTs have qualia, characters in dreams have qualia

Large GPTs lack qualia, characters in dreams have qualia

Large GPTs have qualia, characters in dreams lack qualia

GPTs News

Prediction markets for GPTs

Prediction markets for GPTs

Prediction markets for GPTs

Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?

Qualia: GPTs vs characters in dreams. Resolves when there is consensus on how to test for qualia (likely never haha)

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