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Prediction markets for Graph

Can quantum computer check isomorphism of graphs in the described way?

Sep 12, 5:09 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

3%chance

103588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

951

What is the complexity theoretic status of P vs NP, ETH, and Graph Isomorphism?

Dec 8, 9:26 PMDec 16, 5:59 AM

143486

OptionProbability

P != NP, ETH false, GI in P

P != NP, ETH false, GI NP-intermediate

ETH true, GI NP-intermediate

ETH true, GI in P

P = NP

P != NP, ETH false, GI NP-complete

37

35

10

9

5

4

Which lab will be first to get to 20 hours on the METR graph?

Feb 9, 3:19 PMDec 31, 3:17 PM

292212

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google DeepMind

xAI

Other

51

33

8

5

3

Manifold stats graph looks promising again before 2027?

Dec 13, 1:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.27%chance

241519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1554

643

This market resolves to the majority once a portion of its graph traces out a silhouette of the DC skyline.

May 28, 12:22 AMJun 28, 10:59 PM

50.72%chance

111296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

218

201

Is Graph Isomorphism NP-Complete?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

7.1%chance

241256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1660

886

Is Graph Isomorphism in P?

Nov 18, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.28%chance

21779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

779

Is Graph Isomorphism NP-intermediate?

Feb 14, 1:01 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

44%chance

10348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

161

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.79%chance

5117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

Will METR add any data point on the graph before this year?

Sep 9, 3:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.33%chance

395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

72

Will "The state of AI safety in four fake graphs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 7:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Does a Moore graph with girth 5 and degree 57 exist?

May 12, 5:23 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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