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Prediction markets for Grok API

When will xAI release Grok 5?

Aug 8, 6:37 PMApr 30, 6:36 PM

102871

OptionProbability

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

Before March 2026

Before February 2026

Before 2026

Before December 2025

Before November 2025

Before October 2025

Before September 2025

88

85

79

59

49

15

10

6

4

Grok 4 Heavy gets on Humanity's Last Exam leaderboard?

Jul 18, 2:55 AMSep 2, 2:49 AM

11.54%chance

3503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

277

36

Will a frontier model be delayed in the EU by 90+ days in 2025?

Aug 15, 1:29 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

34.38%chance

6410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1382

724

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