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Prediction markets for Grok language

Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?

Jan 30, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.78%chance

161094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

881

407

New version of grokipedia before?

Jan 31, 11:53 PMDec 30, 11:50 PM

4817

OptionProbability

2026

April

March

February

77

13

9

1

Which LLM has more parameters?

Mar 14, 6:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5262

OptionProbability

GPT-4.5

Grok 3

91

9

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