Grok xAI Model News

Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket

Apr 13, 8:46 PMApr 19, 5:59 AM

4318684

OptionProbability

Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026

Will I still have grok in my car, through mid 2026

Will I will be able to get my Tesla model Y 2023 to automatically back out of my driveway to the side of the road by mid 2026 (without me in it)

Will I be able to drop my car at the entrance to a garage and have it park by mid 2026 (possibly out of sight lines) (without me in it)

I'll see an Optimus or other Tesla robot in San Mateo CA in public not at the dealership by mid 2028

Max configurable speed for self driving will be above 85 by mid 2025

Tesla robotaxi rideable in SF by the public by mid 2025

I'll be able to call a Waymo to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

I'll be able to call a fsd Tesla vehicle to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

US Customer takes delivery of Cybercab with no steering wheel by end of 2026

Will I be able to use a non xAi model in the car, via same mechanism as grok, by mid 2026

Will there be any conditions where I'm able to sleep in my 2023 Model Y (FSD currently 14.2.1) while it drives, on a public road by mid 2026?

100

Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?

Mar 2, 8:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26%chance

7216343

OptionVotes

YES

1071

490

Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date

Aug 31, 2:57 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

167585

OptionProbability

Before February 2027

Before January 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Will xAI merge with Anthropic before 2030?

Oct 8, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.84%chance

161820

OptionVotes

YES

1046

667

Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?

Jan 30, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.78%chance

161094

OptionVotes

YES

881

407

New version of grokipedia before?

Jan 31, 11:53 PMDec 30, 11:50 PM

4817

OptionProbability

2026

April

March

February

SpaceX pivots away from xAI

Jun 26, 6:07 PMJun 28, 3:59 AM

26.74%chance

4678

OptionVotes

YES

1655

604

Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk?

Oct 18, 8:25 PMDec 31, 8:14 PM

21.28%chance

10485

OptionVotes

YES

192

will x.ai move away from "Grok" branding in 2026?

Mar 1, 1:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.36%chance

6455

OptionVotes

YES

537

Which lab will have the #1 model on the arena.ai Text leaderboard on November 30, 2026?

Nov 2, 4:26 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

1320

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

When will xAI release Grok 5?

Oct 22, 6:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5294

OptionProbability

Not released in 2026

December 1–31, 2026

By November 30, 2026

Will xAI release Grok 5 by December 6, 2026?

Nov 7, 2:11 AMDec 6, 11:59 PM

14.98%chance

317

OptionVotes

YES

103

Grok xAI Model News

Prediction markets for Grok xAI Model

Prediction markets for Grok xAI Model

Prediction markets for Grok xAI Model

Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket

Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?

Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date

Will xAI merge with Anthropic before 2030?

Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?

New version of grokipedia before?

SpaceX pivots away from xAI

Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk?

will x.ai move away from "Grok" branding in 2026?

Which lab will have the #1 model on the arena.ai Text leaderboard on November 30, 2026?

When will xAI release Grok 5?

Will xAI release Grok 5 by December 6, 2026?

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