Group of Death News

Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026?

Mar 18, 7:19 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20%chance

19734597

OptionVotes

YES

1990

430

Will the IDF kill more of Hamas's October 7th hostages than Hamas does?

Oct 20, 5:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.79%chance

9517887

OptionVotes

YES

3503

343

Is Boeing killing whistleblowers?

May 2, 8:48 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.83%chance

648016

OptionVotes

YES

1458

887

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Mar 16, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

115646

OptionProbability

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

The Voynich manuscript is a meaningful text (15%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper (35%)

Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Jul 6, 12:09 AMJun 15, 11:59 PM

25.81%chance

64148

OptionVotes

YES

1695

590

Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2030? [ADD ANSWERS]

Apr 10, 10:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

353628

OptionProbability

Kerch Bridge (Crimea)

Yamal-Europe Pipeline

Belo Monte Dam (Brazil)

Guri Dam (Venezuela)

Itaipu Dam (Brazil and Paraguay)

Vatican City

Suez Canal (Egypt)

Xiluodu Dam (China)

Baihetan Dam (China)

Three Gorges Dam (China)

The Great Sphinx of Giza (Egypt)

Panama Canal (Panama)

Golden Gate Bridge (United States)

Statue of Liberty (US)

The Empire State Building (US)

The Louvre (Paris, France)

Channel Tunnel (UK and France)

Hoover Dam (US)

Port of Houston (US)

World Trade Center (New York, US)

Eiffel Tower (Paris, France)

The Holland Tunnel (The tunnel under the Hudson River) (NYC to NJ, US)

Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2025?

Nov 9, 12:22 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

33.14%chance

241656

OptionVotes

YES

1420

704

Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Jul 5, 6:08 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

17.86%chance

131438

OptionVotes

YES

2145

466

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.96%chance

9573

OptionVotes

YES

372

367

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.93%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

1017

958

Which option is better aligned with your value? (Death probabilities assignment on two groups)

Dec 21, 7:14 AM

130

Which option is better aligned with your value? (Death probabilities assignment on two groups, you are in group A)

Jan 11, 4:28 AM

150

Group of Death News

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Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026?

Will the IDF kill more of Hamas's October 7th hostages than Hamas does?

Is Boeing killing whistleblowers?

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2030? [ADD ANSWERS]

Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2025?

Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Which option is better aligned with your value? (Death probabilities assignment on two groups)

Which option is better aligned with your value? (Death probabilities assignment on two groups, you are in group A)

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