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Prediction markets for Group of Five

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

38.22%chance

314818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

Which one of these ex-LOONA kpop acts will be the first to get a win on a music show?

Apr 2, 7:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6392

OptionProbability

ARTMS

Yves

Other

Chuu

Loossemble

77

13

7

2

1

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

When will the first anti-AGI terror attack occur?

Jun 11, 3:42 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9248

OptionProbability

Other

Never, AGI kills all humans first

2025

2026

2024

2027

2023

31

21

21

11

7

5

4

In five years, the scientific consensus will be that ctenophores are the sister group to all other animals.

Sep 30, 4:31 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

45.52%chance

441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

109

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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