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Prediction markets for Groups

Will Proud Boys, Three Percenters, or members of similar far-right groups kill at least 10 people in the US in 2025?

Nov 7, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18%chance

121183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2135

468

Will a paramilitary group form around the anti immigration movement in the UK in the next 6 years?

Aug 14, 12:10 AMDec 21, 11:59 PM

26.98%chance

141180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

Will mainstream (online) English use a separate second person group pronoun (y'all, yous, ...) in 2030?

Sep 17, 1:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.68%chance

18663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

871

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Jul 21, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.47%chance

16527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

1298

Will islamist group(s) take over Pakistan before 2035?

Oct 14, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.17%chance

8486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

Will at least 2 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup host nations win their opening group stage match?

Oct 30, 3:45 PMJun 14, 10:59 PM

44.3%chance

7450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

892

Will Trump issue a pardon / commutation for a group of people (not by name) during his term?

Aug 25, 10:04 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

36.23%chance

6439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1327

754

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.64%chance

12318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

938

Will the Group of Seven (G7) add a country before 2030?

May 21, 7:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.44%chance

6300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

933

Anti-EV or Pro-ICE vehicle lobbying group at least 1/10 as big as the NRA by 2035

Jun 19, 1:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.62%chance

12232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

917

Will "AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 5:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will a team that goes 2-2 in group advance to the single elimination round of the NBA In-Season Tournament by 2028?

Dec 2, 2:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes

No

50

50

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