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Prediction markets for Groups

Linus media group reviews a sex toy.

Jan 9, 4:12 AMJan 2, 4:12 AM

31.27%chance

7412174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14828

6745

Will a paramilitary group form around the anti immigration movement in the UK in the next 6 years?

Aug 14, 12:10 AMDec 21, 11:59 PM

26.98%chance

141180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

Will mainstream (online) English use a separate second person group pronoun (y'all, yous, ...) in 2030?

Sep 17, 1:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.74%chance

18664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

872

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Jul 21, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.47%chance

16527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

1298

Will islamist group(s) take over Pakistan before 2035?

Oct 14, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.17%chance

8486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

Will at least 2 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup host nations win their opening group stage match?

Oct 30, 3:45 PMJun 14, 10:59 PM

44.3%chance

7450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

892

Will Trump issue a pardon / commutation for a group of people (not by name) during his term?

Aug 25, 10:04 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

36.23%chance

6439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1327

754

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.64%chance

12318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

938

Will the Group of Seven (G7) add a country before 2030?

May 21, 7:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.44%chance

6300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

933

Anti-EV or Pro-ICE vehicle lobbying group at least 1/10 as big as the NRA by 2035

Jun 19, 1:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.62%chance

12232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

917

Focus Group Podcast on AI by EOY 2026

Jan 11, 4:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.46%chance

271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

952

In the FIFA 2026 World Cup, which teams will place 2nd or 3rd in their group AND move on to the knockout phase?

Feb 2, 7:59 PMJun 24, 5:05 PM

00

OptionProbability

USA

Canada

Mexico

50

50

50

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