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Prediction markets for Growth 250

Kokotajlo v.s. Wyeth: METR task length 8+ hours in March 2027?

Aug 16, 7:54 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

449681

OptionProbability

Kokotajlo wins: longer than 8 hours

Wyeth wins: shorter than 8 hours

89

11

Will the amount of yearly orbital space launches triple again in the next 5 years?

Feb 4, 5:05 PMJan 1, 4:55 PM

54.64%chance

3200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

911

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