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Prediction markets for GUARD Act

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

Mar 5, 4:55 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

62%chance

14468018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1393

626

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.03%chance

6826739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1948

1883

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.77%chance

113603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1953

512

Trump's first cabinet member fired, failed, or resigned Pete Hegseth?

Apr 21, 8:52 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

10.06%chance

393051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

33

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

Jan 24, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.6%chance

592297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

Confrontation between ICE and Minnesota police

Jan 25, 2:23 AMApr 1, 1:16 AM

25.97%chance

142054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

963

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.19%chance

161260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1636

611

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Mar 23, 6:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.01%chance

15481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

957

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?

Mar 23, 6:31 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

65.91%chance

16384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

925

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

29.48%chance

5248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?

Aug 27, 3:27 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

61.19%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

80

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