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Prediction markets for GUARD Act

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

Mar 5, 4:55 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

58.05%chance

12762667

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

688

Trump deport people in 2025?

Apr 18, 1:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

115379

OptionProbability

500,000 - 749,999

250,000 - 499,999

750,000 - 999,999

1,000,000+

Below 30,000

30,000 - 99,999

100,000 - 249,999

68

12

10

6

1

1

1

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?

Mar 23, 6:29 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

12.53%chance

465262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2535

512

Trump's first cabinet member fired, failed, or resigned Pete Hegseth?

Apr 21, 8:52 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

42.45%chance

382737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2025?

Nov 2, 6:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.26%chance

151230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.07%chance

91052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

906

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Mar 23, 6:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.01%chance

15481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

957

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?

Mar 23, 6:31 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

65.91%chance

16384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

925

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?

Aug 27, 3:27 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

61.19%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

80

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2026?

Aug 27, 3:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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