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Prediction markets for GUARD Act

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

Mar 5, 4:55 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

47.16%chance

15774690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

887

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.05%chance

25072880

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7852

5623

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

Jan 24, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

878733

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

85.92%chance

415204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1910

754

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.86%chance

113953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

434

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

191582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?

Apr 3, 7:40 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

29.82%chance

13556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

489

269

Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?

Mar 13, 11:09 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

6.33%chance

5211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

788

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

10154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?

Aug 27, 3:27 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

61.19%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

80

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