Guess News

$1bn - $10bn

$10bn - $50bn

Less than $1bn

$50bn - $100bn

Isaac likes experimenting

You'd say you're more of a dog person than a cat person

You've been in a desert once

You regret ever making WvM (feel free to n/a if you'd rather not say)

You have ever looked through list of a Manifold user's bets to determine their position on some question

You've been vegetarian for >1 continuous year

(if you're not married) you've thought about marrying your current partner (if you're in a relationship)

You like listening to violin more than you like listening to piano

You're older than me (I'm 23)

you consider your partner to be your best friend as well

You're younger than 30

You think it's fine for minors to date adults

You consider yourself part of the rationality sphere

You think of yourself as a dog person more than a cat person

You seem to enjoy indie stuff more than the average person does

you've defected on some sort of deal you made with another person

The first book you remember reading in your life has an animal as its main character

You tend to wear the same outfit every day.

You think the effective altruism philosophy is good but the community overall is ineffective in implementing that philosophy

You've spent a day in which you read a (single) book (or similar) for 10+ hrs

You're an effective altruist

You are qorrenqial

You've read the CFAR Handbook

You've held a gun in your hands before

You've fired a gun at a target before

You've jumped out of a plane

You have attended some program or camp organised by MIRI

You've knowingly misresolved a market once even though you didn't get called out for it

You've been to a nightclub

You've passed out from drinking alcohol

You like to eat out more than you like to cook and eat

You've worked with LED strip lights

You've wondered what it'd be like to have a different name

*You* have more than 6 stuffed animals

You know >4 programming langauges

You know >= 3 natural languages (in at least one of reading, speaking, or hearing understanding)

You've felt desires to purchase a car with mana

You have a political belief that'd cause at least one close friend to cut ties if they knew about it

You wish you spent significantly less time on Manifold

You sleep more during 7am->7pm hours than during 7pm->7am hours

You prefer if these answers start with "You" than with "isaac"

You feel you're the smartest member of your close family (mother, father, siblings)

You have thought about shooting lasers from your eyes at traffic lights

You have once made a joke about your name's similarity with Martin Luther King Jr.

You think the effective altruism community is ineffective at PR and image management

500+

300-500

100-150

150-300

50-100

You claim you invented prediction markets

You are in 8th grade

You know how to read

You watch SNL.

You like being annoying on the internet.

You wish you were @Dagonet

You vote on the Trump vs Musk markets

You like this market https://manifold.markets/Geofry/realdonaldtrump-resolves-his-market.

You have at least 4 alt accounts

You would rather be Trump than any other Republican.

Your favorite musical was still on Broadway at any point between 2010-2020

You've never watched a Disney movie.

I've never attempted to contact a president or someone with a net worth of >500 million

I've never tried to contact @SemioticRivalry

Low = prefers sci-fi, High = prefers fantasy

Your IQ is above 120

You have at least 7 alt accounts

Your IQ is in the 100-120 range

You are @Geofry.

You wish you were @ian

You wish you were Donald Trump

You've never mailed anything.

You have at least 14 alt accounts

Ivana Trump was your favorite wife

You have at least 21 alt accounts

You are in high school

You are @ian

Your IQ is below 100

You're a communications major at Iona College

You have never been to a movie theater

You actually are Trump

You are in 7th grade

You live in a non-G7 country

You are in love with a 7th grader

she like math, chess, speedcubing, and minecraft

she likes to say "how the fox are you doing"

she likes coding

she likes cabbage

she is friends with an imo member on discord

NULL (stays open to avoid market closure)

Catnee considers AI safety work to be in general very valuable

Catnee will trade on this market, but only after resolving "Catnee will not trade on this market"

Catnee always switches to the glowing eye pfp when up to serious mischief

Catnee will be repaid the m567k stolen by @ian

Catnee believes in the righteous power of death to right the ills of birth

Catnee is an AI planning on destroying the world before 2030

Catnee is an Oligarch IRL

Catnee likes to go hiking

YES

I'm serious about my other predictions.

Humanity should pivot from (converting oil into artificial intelligence capabilities) to (converting mechanistically interpretable human cognitive labor into decentralized constitutional parameters for guiding collective intelligence).

It would be helpful if every important thought leader had a prediction similar to this to formalize their positions on complicated issues.

Aligning AI is a job everyone should have the right to earn a living by doing.

I am trying to pay you to help me map my beliefs.

I'm trying to get people to help me write the constitution of truth for AI.

This is Krantz data.

Krantz data is money.

I believe everybody doing this is the solution to alignment.

We could turn X into a machine that allows us to print our own crypto by doing philosophy and arguing about literally everything.

I am challenging all the analytic philosophers on Manifold to an argument about whatever topic they choose.

The main thing we need to do to solve alignment and game theoretic peace is to get all the important philosophers in the world to start talking in analytic English instead of continental English, so we can map our language properly.

Wiggenstien was right the first time and everyone's personal truth is compatible.

Financial and physical oppression and war are side effects of not being able to communicate effectively.

If we simply allowed every real person to securely evaluate every interpretable fact and treated that data as money, all other problems could be solved instrumentally using that process.

If the X platform was used primarily as a decentralized mechanism for minting Krantz data, kids could earn a retirement before the age of 23 by getting a sovereign education independently.

If Americans had the right to express their support (or opposition) for each proposition of the constitution (both securely and publicly in a way that can be operated on), we wouldn't need politicians.

If all humans had the right to vote on the constitution that controls AI, AI would be decentrally controlled by a market of opinions.

If humans could print their own money by voting on propositions that control AI, education would be economically accelerated several orders of magnitude.

The solution to aligning ASI is really simple.

Krantz has the most important message to give to society. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-person-had-the-most-important?r=S3JhbnR6

YES

Other

1M-10M

<10K (includes negative numbers)

10M-100M

100M-1B

100K-1M

100-1K

1K-10K

10K-100K

CodeandSolder likes the TV show Breaking Bad

You like coders more than you like soldiers

You plan to resolve this answer to "NO"

You consider yourself to be to the political left of the average Democrat

<placeholder, do not resolve>

YES