OptionProbability
Deadly autonomous vehicle accident with driver present
Cybersecurity incident caused by AI written code
Any incident involving prompt injection in production
Another deadly crime planned with the use of LLMs (after Trump hotel explosion)
Any incident that results in internal investigation, caused by the use of AI by law enforcement
Cybersecurity incident caused by AI inference in production
[Duplicate]
Serious incident involving persuasion or blackmail by AI system
Deadly incident involving autonomous manufacturing equipment
Serious incident that can be directly attributed to misaligned agent behavior
Cybersecurity incident that can be directly attributed to misaligned agent behavior
Deadly incident involving autonomous military equipment
Deadly incident caused by AI medical system or equipment
Deadly autonomous vehicle accident with no driver present
100
81
72
63
62
51
48
44
36
35
33
32
30
25
Within 12 months after Eliezer reviews my work.
2050
2100
2030
2040
2028
2029
2027
2026
2025
41
31
26
20
14
10
8
Deep learning-guided program synthesis
Test-time training (TTT) for transductive models
Combining program synthesis with transductive models
Other approaches
Other
29
19
17
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