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Prediction markets for GUN

Will Trump ban gun sales to transgender people?

Sep 4, 10:01 PMJan 4, 10:53 PM

19.99%chance

498301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2001

500

Will Trump ban gun sales to transgender people?

Sep 5, 9:57 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

20.35%chance

202988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1978

506

Will all gun ownership be made illegal in the U.S. by end of 2040?

Jan 13, 8:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.69%chance

11888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1758

941

Will the NRA reverse their stance of protecting gun rights for transgender people by the end of 2026?

Sep 15, 6:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

12277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will a company be founded that equips humanoid robots with guns before May 2030?

Oct 11, 12:09 PMApr 30, 9:59 PM

65.45%chance

8243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

73

Will Federal Agents draw guns on voters on Election Day 2026

Mar 21, 10:56 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

17%chance

6171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

Will "Washington DC" "Tax 2A to DEATH!" (for example by introducing a "1000% Tax on Guns!") before 2030?

Aug 27, 4:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.88%chance

7126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

296

128

Will Washington firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in Washington"

May 3, 2:15 AMJan 1, 9:00 AM

71.3%chance

987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

682

629

When will a third Top Gun movie be released?

Oct 21, 6:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

468

OptionProbability

2031

2028

2029

2030

Other

2032

2033

23

14

14

14

14

12

8

Will the USA pass a content filtering law covering 3D-printed or other independently manufactured guns?

Jan 22, 2:53 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

47.51%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

951

If the PM after the next UK election is Labour, how many gun deaths in England and Wales over the subsequent 5 years?

Sep 24, 3:41 PMDec 31, 4:26 PM

242

OptionProbability

100 - 200

0 - 100

200 - 300

300 - 400

400 - 500

Above 500

50

14

9

9

9

9

If the PM after the next UK election is Reform, how many gun deaths in England and Wales over the subsequent 5 years?

Sep 24, 3:43 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

135

OptionProbability

100 - 200

200 - 300

0 - 100

300 - 400

400 - 500

Above 500

30

23

12

12

12

12

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