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Prediction markets for H5
Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025?
Mar 26, 2:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
14.4%chance
223162535
OptionVotes
27071
3525
How many H5N1 human cases will there be in the USA by end of 2025, according to CDC?
Jan 2, 3:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
71100581
OptionProbability
79
16
1
1
1
1
1
Will there be more than 1,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu in the US by the end of 2025?
Dec 20, 6:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.46%chance
17059117
OptionVotes
3289
304
Will there be 10k or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?
Dec 21, 11:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
4.65%chance
14949976
OptionVotes
9555
673
Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?
Apr 14, 3:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
9.82%chance
10933100
OptionVotes
3016
364
OptionVotes
19151
5490
Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?
Dec 21, 5:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
12.61%chance
2720718
OptionVotes
2632
380
In November, will Manifold think that H5 bird flu was transmitting human-to-human prior to February 12th?
Feb 13, 2:36 AMNov 9, 5:59 AM
2.31%chance
115797
OptionVotes
5234
53
[Metaculus] Will there be reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 before 2026?
Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 2, 2:00 PM
15.45%chance
284135
OptionVotes
2340
427
Will the WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2025?
Dec 31, 3:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.7%chance
364122
OptionVotes
2510
398
H5N1 virus acquires human-to-human easy transmission capability by June 1st, 2027
May 23, 10:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM
25.89%chance
93348
OptionVotes
1692
591
If H5N1 achieves global human-to-human spread, will it be a dud?
Jan 2, 4:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
41.86%chance
9464
OptionVotes
1179
848