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Top stories

BYD Adds Malaysia Plant and Luxury Track as China EV Exports Surge

BYD Adds Malaysia Plant and Luxury Track as China EV Exports Surge

Authors

16

3 months ago

Prediction markets for H5

Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025?

Mar 26, 2:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.77%chance

225189660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

42079

1994

How many H5N1 human cases will there be in the USA by end of 2025, according to CDC?

Jan 2, 3:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

75131618

OptionProbability

Under 101 cases

101 - 1000 cases

1001 - 10,000 cases

10,001 - 100,000 cases

100,001 - 1,000,000 cases

1,000,001 - 10,000,000 cases

Other

96

2

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be more than 1,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu in the US by the end of 2025?

Dec 20, 6:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.44%chance

17265520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5302

189

Will there be 10k or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?

Dec 21, 11:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.41%chance

15051785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11561

590

Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?

Apr 14, 3:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

3.21%chance

11036430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5634

208

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

Feb 5, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

20.76%chance

7130119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19108

5502

Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?

Dec 21, 5:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.26%chance

2922857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2957

338

[Metaculus] Will there be reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 before 2026?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 2, 2:00 PM

14.39%chance

294235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2440

410

H5N1 virus acquires human-to-human easy transmission capability by June 1st, 2027

May 23, 10:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

20.32%chance

113511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1980

505

Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 before 2030?

Feb 5, 9:23 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

57.67%chance

261495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

779

Bird flu H5N1 outbreak in Australia in 2025 or 2026?

Oct 25, 3:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.98%chance

61049

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1940

515

If H5N1 achieves global human-to-human spread, will it be a dud?

Jan 2, 4:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.86%chance

9464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1179

848

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