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Prediction markets for Hacks

Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be hacked within 12 months of its release date?

Feb 3, 2:45 PMJun 4, 10:59 PM

11.2%chance

12744195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2995

345

Will the alleged 2022/11/11 FTX hack turn out to be an inside job?

Nov 12, 8:46 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

10.47%chance

233289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1835

491

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

73.84%chance

151472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1936

988

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.78%chance

221450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2411

1180

Which YouTubers are going to be at Campfire Flagship? (Hack Club)

Jan 23, 12:26 PMFeb 23, 12:00 PM

121279

OptionProbability

Code Bullet (Evan)

Michael Reeves

William Osman

Tech Joyce

PolyMars

The Backyard Scientist

Jabris

Sondering Emily

3Blue1Brown

Veritasium

Mark Rober

MrBeast

99

97

93

88

87

83

83

83

45

34

16

9

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

28.12%chance

121007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1017

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

US Crypto reserve hacked or disappeared before January 20, 2029?

Mar 25, 1:45 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

31.02%chance

8917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

671

Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1)

Apr 8, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

13842

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

60.73%chance

18676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1740

1045

Will "Realistic Reward Hacking Induces Different an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 12, 9:02 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will "METR's Observations of Reward Hacking in Rece..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 26, 12:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

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