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Hacks News

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.54%chance

17534125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14201

7469

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

88.4%chance

202776

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3750

457

Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1)

Apr 8, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.43%chance

201739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1407

711

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

75.2%chance

181556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2020

959

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.78%chance

241458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2411

1180

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

28.12%chance

121007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1017

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

US Crypto reserve hacked or disappeared before January 20, 2029?

Mar 25, 1:45 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

31.02%chance

8917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

671

Will I attend Citadel (a Hack Club hackathon)?

Aug 1, 7:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.11%chance

6771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1727

579

Will an AI agent at OpenAI, Anthropic, or GDM hack one of the other two labs to steal its research before July 2027?

Oct 2, 1:01 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

29.2%chance

8691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

852

Will "Realistic Reward Hacking Induces Different an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 12, 9:02 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.1%chance

2256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1256

964

Will "METR's Observations of Reward Hacking in Rece..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 26, 12:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

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