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Prediction markets for Hacks

Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be hacked within 12 months of its release date?

Feb 3, 2:45 PMJun 4, 10:59 PM

23.45%chance

12639656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1960

548

Was SBF behind the FTX hack?

Nov 12, 6:06 AMJan 1, 8:01 AM

3.6%chance

12520188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10828

996

Will any hack of a Tesla vehicle result in someone's death or serious injury before 2026?

Dec 4, 6:41 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.95%chance

183201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2360

748

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

73.84%chance

151472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1936

988

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.78%chance

221450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2411

1180

Will under 13 year old Hack Clubbers be banned before Dec 31st, 2025?

Dec 5, 8:04 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

44.59%chance

111015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

897

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

28.12%chance

121007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1017

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1)

Apr 8, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

13842

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

US Crypto reserve hacked or disappeared before January 20, 2029?

Mar 25, 1:45 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

35.72%chance

7767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1341

745

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

60.73%chance

18676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1740

1045

Will "METR's Observations of Reward Hacking in Rece..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 26, 12:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

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