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Haiku News

March 2026 AI model releases

Mar 1, 4:38 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

12837881

OptionProbability

GPT-5.3 (doesn't include GPT-5.3 Codex)

GPT-5.4 (includes GPT-5.4 Codex or other non-Pro variants)

Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview

GPT-5.4 Pro

Grok 4.20 (out of beta)

Minimax M2.6/M2.7

Gemma 4

Haiku 4.6

Kimi K3

DeepSeek V4-Lite

Gemini 3.1 Flash Preview

GLM-5-Code

Gemini 3.1 Pro GA

Deepseek V4 (Full)

Opus 4.7

Gemini 3.1 Flash GA

Sonnet 5

Sonnet 4.7

Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite GA

Grok 5

Minimax M3

DeepSeek V3.3 or V3.5

GPT-5.3-Thinking

GPT-5.3-Pro

Meta Avocado (or any Meta model)

100

100

100

100

100

100

49

38

35

30

22

21

14

11

11

9

6

5

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities?

Jun 22, 5:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.85%chance

302424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

40

Will Anthropic release a model with a higher version number than 4.6 by April 15th?

Mar 17, 8:24 PMApr 16, 2:59 AM

37.61%chance

251376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

776

When will a new Claude Haiku be released (after 4.5)?

Feb 6, 1:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

101015

OptionProbability

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

Not before 2027

November

December

February

52

22

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

Claude 4.7 released by…?

Mar 22, 8:04 AMDec 31, 8:01 AM

2970

OptionProbability

July 30 11.59pm ET

July 15 11.59pm ET

June 30 11.59pm ET

June 15 11.59pm ET

May 31 11.59pm ET

May 15 11.59pm ET

April 30 11.59pm ET

April 15 11.59pm ET

March 31 11.59pm ET

53

50

46

42

30

27

22

14

3

Will Claude 5 be released before June 1?

Mar 2, 10:12 AMJun 2, 10:59 PM

48.44%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

How many (total) parameters does the Claude3 Haiku (the smallest variant) have? (resolve to log_10(N))

Mar 30, 9:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

9.5-9.6

9.6-9.7

9.7-9.8

9.8-9.9

9.9-10

10-10.1

10.1-10.2

10.2-10.3

10.3-10.4

10.4-10.5

9-9.1

9.1-9.2

9.2-9.3

9.3-9.4

9.4-9.5

10.5-10.6

10.6-10.7

10.7-10.8

10.8-10.9

10.9-11

11-11.1

11.1-11.2

11.2-11.3

11.3-11.4

11.4-11.5

11.5-11.6

11.6-11.7

11.7-11.8

11.8-11.9

11.9-12

12-12.1

12.1-12.2

12.2-12.3

12.3-12.4

12.4-12.5

12.5-12.6

12.6-12.7

12.7-12.8

12.8-12.9

12.9-13

13-13.1

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Manifold Haiku: Vocabulary

Jul 21, 3:18 AMJul 22, 2:59 AM

00

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