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Prediction markets for Hamas war

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

May 3, 10:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

111184706

OptionProbability

Other

Jul - Dec 2027

Jan - Jun 2027

Jul - Dec 2026

Jan - Jun 2024

Jul - Dec 2024

Jan - Jun 2025

Jul - Dec 2025

Jan - Jun 2026

51

23

22

3

0

0

0

0

0

Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?

Nov 4, 9:58 AMJan 7, 12:59 PM

56.37%chance

28744586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

751

Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?

Oct 29, 4:32 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

22.4%chance

20439877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1947

434

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 23, 5:59 AM

71.19%chance

8834517

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

246

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8819732

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

January 6th

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

New York v Trump 2024

Tigray War

The Epstein Files

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

98

97

88

82

82

82

78

75

63

63

62

57

54

51

51

51

40

21

19

Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?

Jan 29, 10:42 AMDec 29, 12:59 AM

30.61%chance

5911564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1272

848

Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?

Jan 3, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.88%chance

275891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4975

201

Will the Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2030 be less than 1.5 million?

Jan 26, 10:04 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

39.43%chance

264546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1239

807

Will Bibi Netanyahu lose power during or in the aftermath after the 2023 Hamas-Israel War

Oct 14, 1:18 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

21.29%chance

151102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

282

39

Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict last ten years, as some senior Israeli officials warned during Biden's trip?

Oct 20, 3:51 PMOct 21, 6:59 AM

13.95%chance

24890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

982

967

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

907

Do you think betting on death markets about war is okay? (E.g. how many people will die in the Israel-Hamas war?)

Oct 13, 2:42 PM

530

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