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Prediction markets for Hamas war

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

May 3, 10:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

99138312

OptionProbability

Other

Jan - Jun 2026

Jul - Dec 2026

Jul - Dec 2025

Jan - Jun 2025

Jan - Jun 2024

Jul - Dec 2024

60

23

14

2

1

0

0

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Oct 8, 6:14 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

31374211

OptionProbability

1500-2500

2500-3500

1000-1500

5000+

3500-5000

0-500

500-1000

84

11

2

2

1

0

0

Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?

Nov 4, 9:58 AMJan 7, 12:59 PM

50.56%chance

28344154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

856

Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?

Oct 29, 4:32 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

16.07%chance

20439395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2329

345

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 1, 5:59 AM

62%chance

6928934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1455

332

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8519498

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

January 6th

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

98

97

88

82

82

82

78

75

63

63

62

57

54

53

51

40

21

13

Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?

Jan 29, 10:42 AMDec 29, 12:59 AM

21.73%chance

5510827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1681

705

A month after the Israel-Hamas war stops will Israel still be firing rockets into Syria or Lebanon

Apr 12, 11:10 AMApr 20, 3:59 AM

42%chance

181207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

114

Will Bibi Netanyahu lose power during or in the aftermath after the 2023 Hamas-Israel War

Oct 14, 1:18 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

20.22%chance

131052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

37

Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict last ten years, as some senior Israeli officials warned during Biden's trip?

Oct 20, 3:51 PMOct 21, 6:59 AM

12.95%chance

21861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

970

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

907

Do you think betting on death markets about war is okay? (E.g. how many people will die in the Israel-Hamas war?)

Oct 13, 2:42 PM

520

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