Handle News

Manifold features launched in 2026

Jan 5, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

177149958

OptionProbability

Predictle / any forecasting game

Charity lottery

User calibration

Better Explore page / Feed

Subscription plan

Interest on all positions

Merch store

Improved liquidity handling

Market Creator can approve/deny/vet user submitted answers to their markets

interesting comment notifications

Space the "X" and "Add" buttons farther apart on M.C./Set markets (or change the UI for this altogether)

Early resolve NO for sum-to-1 multi-choice options

UI/UX changes that favor limit orders

Negative risk conversion

First class N/A resolution

Market comment section search/filter

finer resolution betting near 0%/100%

Re-implement "Unlinked Multiple Choice" as "A bunch of full binary markets that happen to be displayed on the same page"

Groups / communities

An update to the loans / margin / capitalization system that Evan Actually Likes

Any A/B tested UI change

Non third-party sign in

Private manifold instances

Clans

Poker

Parlays

Paid DMs

100

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Nov 20, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.82%chance

618579

OptionVotes

YES

4106

1481

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.99%chance

475909

OptionVotes

YES

1739

800

Waymo handles Denver snow?

Sep 6, 1:39 PMApr 1, 1:28 PM

34.25%chance

371955

OptionVotes

YES

1386

722

What issues will I experience with my Tesla in the first 5 years of ownership

Jun 8, 8:29 PMJun 14, 8:22 PM

41503

OptionProbability

Misc. sensors

Tire replacement

On-board charger replacement

Suspension link or half-shaft

12V battery

Door handles

A/C compressor failure

Charge port door or latch repair

window regulator replacement

Media control unit or screen replacement

drive-unit / inverter replacement

High voltage traction battery pack

100

By 2027, will Silicon Photonics based multi-chip packages be the main way that most data centres handle data and network traffic?

Feb 25, 9:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.85%chance

22474

OptionVotes

YES

1227

929

Will the careful contingency handling in "When will the U.S. elect it's first female President?" be relevant?

Aug 5, 2:16 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

12.31%chance

11242

OptionVotes

YES

1058

970

Will a $1k non-invasive brain interface handle 100 commands before 2027?

Feb 9, 2:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

13209

OptionVotes

YES

1045

966

Is Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Mar 10, 5:35 AMMar 10, 6:31 AM

40.88%chance

3148

OptionVotes

YES

120

Will Large Language Models be able to match up all queries of my real name matched up with all my online handles by 2026

Mar 11, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.12%chance

320

OptionVotes

YES

Is the next city-nuke launched by an AI, or a human?

May 23, 3:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

315

OptionProbability

Human made the decision, and deployment was also handled by humans

AI made the decision, and handled deployment on its own

AI made the decision, but needed a human to complete launch

Human made the decision, but deployment was assisted by AI

Handle Multiple Choice Answers in Contract Positions API

Nov 23, 9:13 PM

Handle News

Prediction markets for Handle

Prediction markets for Handle

Prediction markets for Handle

Manifold features launched in 2026

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

Waymo handles Denver snow?

What issues will I experience with my Tesla in the first 5 years of ownership

By 2027, will Silicon Photonics based multi-chip packages be the main way that most data centres handle data and network traffic?

Will the careful contingency handling in "When will the U.S. elect it's first female President?" be relevant?

Will a $1k non-invasive brain interface handle 100 commands before 2027?

Is Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Will Large Language Models be able to match up all queries of my real name matched up with all my online handles by 2026

Is the next city-nuke launched by an AI, or a human?

Handle Multiple Choice Answers in Contract Positions API

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