Happy Hour News

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

@retr0id

@Quroe

@vi

@Bandors

@zhengkyl

@Eternal

@Cy

@8my41

@astroblob

@AlirezaAfshan

@AtharvPatil

Pat Scott @Stralor

NO

One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK

Weak electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 500 or fewer constituencies

5 or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK in a coordinated way

Strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies

The leaders of Reform UK and the Conservative Party announce a merge of the parties

One or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party

Very strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives do not run against each other in any constituencies

3 or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party in a coordinated way

Richard Tice defects to the Conservative Party

YES

YES

YES

NO