OptionVotes
YES
NO
1703
1135
OptionProbability
6-12 months
more than 18 months
12-18 months
3-6 months
0. (take back acceptance of offer)
under 3 months
Other
32
24
22
19
1
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK
5 or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK in a coordinated way
Weak electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 500 or fewer constituencies
Strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies
The leaders of Reform UK and the Conservative Party announce a merge of the parties
Very strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives do not run against each other in any constituencies
One or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party
3 or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party in a coordinated way
Richard Tice defects to the Conservative Party
Nigel Farage defects to the Conservative Party
100
39
29
25
15
14
12
9
1081
928
352
347
