OptionVotes
NO
YES
1585
1297
OptionProbability
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK
5 or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK in a coordinated way
Weak electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 500 or fewer constituencies
Strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies
The leaders of Reform UK and the Conservative Party announce a merge of the parties
One or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party
Very strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives do not run against each other in any constituencies
Richard Tice defects to the Conservative Party
3 or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party in a coordinated way
Nigel Farage defects to the Conservative Party
100
39
29
25
24
16
15
12
8
1398
866
1081
928
352
347
