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Prediction markets for Head Start

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.52%chance

3826421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

776

Will Jaime Maussan's 'nonhuman beings' (2023) still be considered an 'elaborate hoax' by Wikipedia in 2030?

Dec 20, 3:28 AMJan 2, 3:59 AM

94.17%chance

1814147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1736

912

Will the United States of America abduct another head of state in 2026?

Jan 3, 6:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.98%chance

438699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2632

188

Chechnya confronts Russia before the end of Russia-Ukraine war?

Jul 8, 9:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12%chance

425032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2261

697

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will a Cabinet nomination be rejected or withdrawn before January 3, 2029?

Oct 7, 2:54 AMJan 3, 5:00 PM

67.26%chance

8840

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1568

509

What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's?

Aug 29, 8:29 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

30%chance

8681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

990

102

Will there be a bald US president before February 2049?

Sep 12, 5:02 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

36.06%chance

8405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

751

Will any current NATO head of state start a podcast and release at least 5 episodes before 2030?

Sep 11, 3:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.42%chance

10164

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

130

If Democrats win the House in 2026, will the House impeach a Cabinet member before January 3, 2029?

Oct 7, 2:13 AMJan 3, 5:00 PM

72.99%chance

4127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

957

If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will a Cabinet nomination be rejected or withdrawn before January 3, 2029?

Oct 7, 2:54 AMJan 3, 5:00 PM

17.18%chance

791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

450

Who will be Head of State of Haiti at the start of 2027?

Feb 10, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

125

OptionProbability

Nobody

Multiple people

Alix Didier Fils-Aimé

39

39

21

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