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Prediction markets for Health

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.02%chance

19736975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2290

437

Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?

Sep 21, 9:08 PMDec 28, 11:59 PM

74.19%chance

10536810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16953

5899

Will Trump having serious health troubles during his second term be revealed before 2031?

Jul 16, 2:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

78.44%chance

889039

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1908

525

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

Major revelation about Trump's health, negative, by mid 2027

Jan 19, 12:56 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

44.61%chance

154539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1114

897

Will AI take over most mental health therapy jobs by end of 2030?

Apr 21, 2:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.37%chance

362466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2209

692

Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.04%chance

171471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

649

Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.61%chance

181460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

399

Does drinking from plastic bottles actually cause negative health effects in humans by the best evidence in 2034?

Dec 5, 2:45 PMDec 5, 4:59 AM

74.3%chance

141260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1700

588

Does wearing polyester clothing actually cause negative health effects in humans according to the best evidence in 2034?

Dec 5, 3:29 AMDec 5, 4:59 AM

77.48%chance

121254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1855

539

Is it better for battery health to charge new M1 Macbooks via Magsafe rather than USB-C?

May 19, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.07%chance

211238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1877

1353

General health benefits from cold showers, accepted by 2040?

Apr 14, 11:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.27%chance

15274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

994

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